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In 2008, 2015, and 2021, South Africa was swept into weeks of violent riots that had to be quelled in 2008 and 2015 by the military and in 2021 by private citizens after the police deserted their posts and the army never showed up. All three bouts of rioting were precipitated by periods of escalating living costs, organised incitement, and cold weather – factors that are all in play as the clock ticks down to tomorrow. This time, however, there is a fourth factor in play that is mitigating the risk: the state is not in denial as it was on the previous three occasions and has very sensibly sought to work closely with South Africa’s vast industry of private security operators.

Security planning has over the past month moved into a coordinated national posture involving both the state and the private sector. The South African Police Service has elevated operational readiness across multiple provinces, with deployments focused on protecting key infrastructure, stabilising high-risk areas, and preventing potential flashpoints during the mobilisation period. Leave has been cancelled and the military is on standby to support the police. The spies have been working overtime to snuff out nests of incitement and moderate these.

At the centre of that overall security response, but taking a public back seat, is South Africa’s private security industry, which is now playing a materially expanded operational role alongside the state. The approach reflects a pragmatic recognition of capacity constraints within public law enforcement and the need to draw on external expertise in managing complex crowd and civil risk environments.

South Africa has one of the largest private security industries in the world. Driven by high crime rates and a lack of public trust in state law enforcement (which has been wracked by affirmative action and corruption), the private sector has essentially created a parallel safety infrastructure.

This massive market generates billions of rands annually as citizens and businesses spend heavily on private protection, residential guarding, commercial centres, and vehicle-tracking logistics.

The industry is an economic powerhouse that boasts between 15 000 and 16 500 registered, active private security firms. These companies actively employ and deploy more than 600 000 security officers across the nation. Furthermore, the industry's database contains nearly three million registered personnel, creating an enormous potential reserve pool. This massive commercial footprint is heavily centralised, with approximately 55% of all registered security businesses operating within Gauteng.

The scale of this private workforce vastly overshadows the country's official public defence and law enforcement capabilities. Active private security guards currently outnumber frontline officers in the South African Police Service by a ratio of roughly four to one. In fact, the active private security workforce is more than double the size of the national police force and the South African National Defence Force combined.

The integration of this sector into national preparedness planning reflects an emerging hybrid security model in which state and private capabilities operate in parallel to contain risk, reduce pressure on policing capacity, and improve response times in volatile environments.

This is a very positive development for South Africa, and its importance cannot be overstated – particularly given that the private industry contains skills that have been forced out of the state’s security machinery as corruption and affirmative action gutted it.

Private security experts involved in the planning process are understood to be working closely with government structures, providing specialist skills in surveillance, perimeter control, rapid response coordination, and infrastructure protection. The expectation is that this coordinated posture will materially reduce the likelihood of uncontrolled escalation during the protest period, particularly in urban centres and high-density areas.

Frans Cronje previously told The Common Sense that a key difference in this response compared to responses to earlier episodes of rioting is that the state has mounted a large security response, supported by private security structures, aimed at preventing escalation and rapidly containing incidents.

On that basis, he says, “The most likely outcome is not a nationwide wave of prolonged violence, but instead scattered and isolated incidents around 30 June. These could still be serious in some locations, including arson, attacks on trucks, and occasional fatalities, with media coverage potentially amplifying the sense of wider disorder beyond what actually unfolds … but at this stage our advice to clients has been that we do not expect the rolling wave of near nationwide violence and rioting the country saw in 2021.”