That finding cuts directly against the dominant narrative. Much of the media, political rhetoric, and public debate seeks to project a country locked into rigid camps of black and white, rich and poor, divided beyond repair, or at worst pitted against each other in an existential zero-sum battle for dominance. It is a powerful story, seemingly easily corroborated by hyped incidents here and there, but it is the wrong one.

The reality is more hopeful, and more grounded.

Despite South Africa’s history, and despite persistent inequality, almost nine in 10 of the country’s people retain a deep reservoir of shared values, common decency, and the desire to build the country together. That this should hold true at all is remarkable. That it holds true to the extent that it does is extraordinary and is surely the country’s greatest asset.

But it is not guaranteed to hold together forever, and the social compact will only endure if it is matched by economic progress.

In many respects, that is why these numbers on good relations are possible at all. The African National Congress, much derided in the media, did exceptionally well in the first decade-and-a-bit after 1994 to lift the living standards of all South Africans.

If you doubt that, it is because you read too much of the legacy press – and its hyped stories of jobless growth, failed service delivery, and unbreakable inequality.

The reality was quite different. Just consider that:

• •Between 1994 and 2008, the number of people in employment almost doubled from under eight million to near 15 million;
• •Over those same years, the share of families without electricity fell from just under 50% to under 20%;
• •Between 1994 and 2008, government cut national debt levels in half and secured the first multi-year surpluses since the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910, and used the ensuing interest bill savings to roll out a social grants programme from an initial three million-odd beneficiaries to nearer 12 million; and
• •Whereas the ratio of white to black engineering graduates stood at near 40 to 1 in the early 1990s, halfway into South Africa’s democratic era the number had reversed to 1 to 2 – and not because there were fewer whites.

So it is not by happenstance that relations between South Africans are basically good today – but because the country improved sufficiently for most of its people to feel today that they have a lot to lose if those relations break down. Deepening that sense must be very much the national objective now, but it goes without saying that at an unemployment rate near 30% this will be impossible to do.

That 30% number must come down to nearer 10% if the promise reflected in the IRR’s latest data is to be realised.

In turn, that requires one very simple number to change. The rate of fixed investment, currently sitting at roughly 15% of GDP, needs to rise closer to 25%. If it does that, the economy will begin to grow at 4%, and then the unemployment rate will fall to 10% over the next 20 years, and if that happens, all other things being equal, South Africa will be an amazing country for all its people.