South Africans Face a Murder Risk Seven Times Higher than the Global Norm

The Editorial Board

– November 29, 2025

4 min read

The latest crime data show that South Africans are approximately seven times more likely to be murdered than the global average, nearly three times more likely than the continental African average, and almost twenty times more likely than residents of Europe or Asia.

South Africans Face a Murder Risk Seven Times Higher than the Global Norm

Photo by Per-Anders Pettersson/Liaison

New crime statistics released this week reveal the scale of the bloodletting on the country’s streets. Acting police minister Firoz Cachalia confirmed that 5 739 people were murdered between July and September.

An extrapolation by The Common Sense, based on historical annual patterns, indicates that around 25 000 people will be murdered in 2025.

With a national population of roughly 63 million, this implies a murder rate of 39.7 per 100 000 people. By comparison, World Bank data places the global average at 5 per 100 000. The Americas record a rate of 14, Africa an average of 11, Europe 2, and Asia 2.

Security insiders told The Common Sense that the police have been nearly fully infiltrated by criminal syndicates and have lost the ability to provide public safety across large parts of the country. Beyond corruption this penetration has seen police officers often lead or participate in the country’s most dangerous robbery gangs.

This insight matches data from South Africa’s Human Sciences Research Council, a government agency, showing that only 1 in 5 South Africans trust the police.

The joint collapse in service delivery and trust has created a vacuum filled by private security companies for those who can afford them.

Data seen by The Common Sense shows that businesses and the middle classes have increasingly turned to private protection, with the number of private security officers now exceeding the number of police officers by around 400%. In poorer communities, the same pattern has emerged but without the resources to hire protection. Residents under siege from violent crime have instead turned to vigilantism.

Polls published by The Common Sense this week showed that crime and violence is now the second most important issue cited by South Africans when asked to name the country’s top government priority.

Reassurances by the minister that the situation could be brought under control were described by one senior policing analyst as: “quite absurd” and: “putting lipstick on a pig”.