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Through four weeks of media hysteria, partisan disinformation, plain ignorant analysis, and simple bad reporting from much of the global and domestic press, The Common Sense took a measured, calm, and informed line on the war in Iran, reminding readers that global economic and market indicators remained stable in line with their moving averages, and that a near-term exit point for the war, which would see the dollar come off, oil prices retreat, and markets lift, was more likely than a prolonged conflict that would tip the world into crisis. The ceasefire agreement last night is vindication that, thus far, it has been right to do so.

As The Common Sense reported earlier today, the ceasefire came after United States (US) President Trump had threatened to extinguish Iranian "civilization" through a bombing campaign targeting its economic infrastructure.

Following Pakistan-led mediation efforts, the Iranian foreign ministry announced last night that, "For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."

In response, President Trump said, "Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks."

Frans Cronje, the Editor of The Common Sense, and whose firm produced the analysis of the war that the newspaper relied on, said, "The cessation of hostilities aligns exactly with our advice that the war would conclude in the nearer term rather than the longer term via our scenarios two and four [See below for an explanation of the six scenarios The Common Sense published in its Special Report on the war.]... that seems to be what is occurring, although the agreement struck last night extends for only 14 days, and setbacks and flare-ups must be expected."

Ahead of the truce agreement, while other media groups were spouting the most sensationalist doomsday prophecies, this newspaper reported that, “Six scenarios are still in play, but two remain the most likely... The first is a strategic withdrawal in which the US exits without fully securing Hormuz… in that scenario, oil prices would likely ease and the US dollar would weaken. The second is a controlled de-escalation in which Iran allows more oil through the Strait… that too would point to gradually lower oil prices and a softer US dollar.”

It has put similarly measured advice across on its podcasts and the like over the past month.

The Common Sense could offer such measured advice because it went to great lengths to do extensive research into the conflict and consulted broadly with a very wide spectrum of actors, and did so from a non-ideological and non-partisan perspective.

That culminated in the publishing of a special report on the Iran war that sketched six scenarios for how the war might conclude. Five of the six showed near-term endpoints, and only one, the infamous scenario six, painted a long-term conflict. The newspaper settled from the start on advice that the war would most likely end via scenarios two (a US strategic pullback) and four (Iran backing down on throttling Hormuz) coalescing. That scenario analysis has been privately credited as one of the best assessments of the probable global implications of the war published by any institution anywhere in the world, let alone a media company.

Throughout, this newspaper looked to stress the calm facts about the war and in that exposed the extent to which other global media companies did their readers a great disservice.

Consider that, for all the hysteria spouted, a month into the war, and before the ceasefire had been announced, the US dollar was around 3% weaker than it had been a year before (even though the dollar usually strengthens during times of global crisis). Global stock markets, including South Africa’s, were between 20% and 30% higher than they had been a year before, the rand was almost 10% stronger than it had been a year before, global growth forecasts were virtually unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2025, and oil and petrol prices were perfectly in line with their 10-to-15-year inflation-adjusted averages.

As this newspaper reported earlier, the 14-day truce is not the end of the war. Flare-ups and even a full resumption of fighting remain possible. Thus far, however, this newspaper has called the trajectory of the conflict completely accurately, a testament to its objective to be an excellent, measured, and useful resource, and the great respect with which it regards its readers.