The Common Sense’s Diary Grapes of Wrath Edition

And so the foot-and-mouth virus claims its biggest victim and ends the political career of John Steenhuisen as leader of the DA (although he should remain in the Cabinet, for now). Given the mess at his department, it probably had to be this way. To quote Enoch Powell in 1977, “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.”

What has been going on at the Department of Agriculture under his watch? A wandering albatross says some global suppliers have cancelled their foot-and-mouth vaccine supply agreements with South Africa because the government has not supplied importers with the correct paperwork. It’s absurd, John and the state insisting that it can handle the crisis better than the private sector and then messing up something as straightforward as the import paperwork.

Why couldn’t Steenhuisen have seen this coming? It is going to end his career even beyond the DA and he will be poverty-struck. He should have rushed to do everything in his power to allow private actors to source and supply vaccines – subject, as is routine for other diseases, to sensible regulations. By insisting that only the state can do it, Steenhuisen, already under siege in his party, put all the responsibility squarely on himself should anything go awry. Politically it just makes no sense to invite that level of culpability.

And who could possibly believe that the state is better positioned than the private sector to fix this crisis? What else is it better at doing than the private sector – especially South Africa’s agricultural private sector that is so innovative and brilliant to survive in such a harsh policy and climatic environment as South Africa?

There’s another risk that is headed for both Steenhuisen and the DA. At what rate will vaccines be landed? As there is no free market and demand is astronomical, the rate may be high relative to global norms, especially if the state wants a cut or handling fee or similar. Already there are reports that a state entity will receive and hold some of the vaccines. If what South Africa paid for the vaccines turns out to be out of line with global market prices, a Covid-19, state-capture-style corruption scandal and reckoning may be loading for the DA. Steenhuisen is not corrupt and nor is the DA in this. But it will be easy in retrospect to manufacture a media sensation and throw all kinds of allegations around, necessitating commissions of inquiry and the like. In the public mind that will be as good as a conviction. Do that just ahead of the 2029 election and a key DA campaign pillar will be called into doubt in the minds of voters.

Of course, this is in the interests of the ANC. It’s politics, after all, and quite normal for that sort of thing. The DA stands out in the public mind as being better at government than the ANC and not corrupt at all. The ANC has to break that idea down ahead of 2029 and it has now been handed an easy means to do that.

Again, had Steenhuisen opened the market, there could be no such political avenue open to its rival. It has all been so silly.

AgriSA, South Africa’s largest agricultural union, said last week that eight of its nine provincial affiliates supported Steenhuisen and the state’s approach to closed vaccine procurement, distribution, and administration (the Free State took a correct and principled position, to the benefit of farmers and to its eternal credit). That sounds off – farmers not wanting the ability to source and procure and administer vaccines? At The Common Sense we have yet to come across a single farmer who holds that view. So what is going on? Well, AgriSA may have a vast number of farmers as members but the people who have the pull there are the agri-corporates, banks, and the like, who regard farmers as pests and have every interest in ingratiating themselves with the state in pursuit of pork-barrel regulation. Steenhuisen should not take AgriSA’s endorsement to heart. They’ll drop him in an instant and testify for the prosecution at future inquiries into the foot-and-mouth crisis – if that is what they think the government would most approve of.

Compounding the mess is that it turns out under his watch the Agriculture Department has pursued further race-based empowerment regulations that directly contradict DA policy and campaign positions. Another blaps. Was there no one in the office to head that off? Well, there was, and his name was Roman Cabanac, but DA donors and the party FedEx turned on him and forced Steenhuisen to fire him as chief of staff. Say what you wish of Roman’s past political commentary, but he was an attorney who knew what he was doing. Cabanac has subsequently done very well and is commonly seen breakfasting on the patio of an elite country club.

A wandering albatross leads us to understand that Cabanac was in favour of a very different empowerment model for agriculture, one that would see emerging farmers with workable business plans qualify for finance at a discount to the commercial lending rate. That could have transformed agriculture completely to the benefit of emerging and established producers alike – especially via partnerships. But the DA made Steenhuisen throw him out – not understanding that Cabanac was arguably the most important figure holding Steenhuisen’s grip on the government together. That, after all, is why the ANC wanted him out and why its media proxies went to such lengths to alarm the chattering donors. The ensuing axing is therefore really the point at which this all spiralled and now John is reaping the whirlwind. To quote Steinbeck (appropriate here on every level), “And in the eyes of the people there is the failure … there is a growing wrath … in the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage.”

It could all have been avoided. Steenhuisen should have made friends with the farmers and found common cause with them – and then followed Cabanac’s advice to champion the financing of emerging farmers. What an image that would have been – Steenhuisen taking commercial and emerging farmers hand in hand to build a great new future. It would have made his career. And it would have been very good for the country and the DA. Tragically, he went against them and has not survived the consequences.