South Africa’s national political balance has been stable since the May 2024 election. Readers will recall that the result of that election saw the African National Congress (ANC) get 40%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) 22%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 11%, and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) 15%. That balance has been polled on numerous occasions since then, and the data are set out on the chart below. 

The chart shows that the balance of power between the ANC and the DA has largely held at around that of the May 2024 election. The ANC has polled in a band of around 40%, and the DA has lifted gently towards the higher 20 percentiles. The EFF and MKP have largely held around about where they started. Or, to put it differently, nothing dramatic has happened.

There are two comments to make on that.

The first is that the ANC number did drop to just over 30% in early 2025 (around day 350 on the chart). The reason for that was the VAT hike dispute ahead of that year's budget. The ANC insisted on raising taxes, which the DA strongly opposed. After the ANC backed down, its support was restored to near the 40% level, which it has held since.

The second is that DA support has polled a good few percentage points above its May 2024 result. That must be read carefully, as this pattern has been seen in the past, where, between elections, DA support rises by a few percentage points, only to be driven back down in the weeks before an election as the ANC and the mainstream media put into operation campaigns to discredit that party.

Around the middle of next week, The Common Sense will publish fresh national numbers. A first thing to look for in those is whether ANC support has been affected by the Phala Phala corruption scandal and related investigations into President Cyril Ramaphosa, and whether DA support is up as a consequence. That will be a very useful indicator of whether the post-May 2024 deadlock is fracturing.

The polls to be released next week will also provide new numbers on the race for Johannesburg. When The Common Sense last polled that at the end of the first quarter of the year, the ANC came in at 30% in the city and the DA at 39%. That is set out on the chart below.

The Common Sense will also release data on other cities, such as Tshwane, where it suspects the figures may show the DA approaching a majority.

Data will also be released on the ANC leadership race. When that was polled in the first quarter, 47% of ANC voters said they would support Patrice Motsepe to succeed Ramaphosa. That was higher than the collective for all his major rivals. His numbers for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, against those of his key rivals, are set out in the chart below.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense, "The Motsepe question is really the most important political decision the ANC has come to stand before in 30 years. If it picks him as the next party leader, it has a prospect to reverse its current decline should he make the firm decisions on infrastructure, energy, empowerment, and foreign policy needed to take the brakes off investment. If he does, then we still see the ANC getting back to 50% of the vote in 2029 or 2034. If the party does not pick him, or if it does and our read on him proves wrong, then there is little prospect of the party arresting its descent, let alone restoring its majority."

The extent of the implications of this is dawning on the ANC. Last week, veteran ANC leader Mathews Phosa suggested that his party could see its vote share slip to around 25% in future elections. That is pretty much in line with what polls suggest the party may be drifting towards by the end of the decade should it fail to take firm decisions in favour of reform after Ramaphosa exits, which he is expected to do in late 2027.