Analysis: This Is How the Iran Conflict Will Play Out

According to a note from advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients, the most intense phase of the Iran war will end within days, Iranian offensive ability will be greatly degraded, its regional proxies will not enter the war at any great scale, and a new Iranian leadership will come into view.

The note explains that the United States (US) moved precisely in line with a 10-day countdown first signalled on 19 February. Within a 24-hour window of that deadline, US forces commenced coordinated strikes from the air and sea, prompted in part by a rare opportunity presenting itself of key Iranian leaders being gathered in one venue. The US and its regional allies acted swiftly, decapitating the Iranian leadership in a move designed not merely to degrade capability but to reset the political trajectory of Iran.

The conflict has now entered its decisive phase.

According to the firm, the core US strategic objective is that a new leadership emerges in Tehran that meets three conditions: “It must back off the nuclear programme, back off the ballistic missile programme, and be powerful enough to maintain order inside Iran.”

Any leadership that satisfies those criteria will be welcomed. In this objective, the note goes on to say, the US is aligned with key Middle Eastern allies, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, who are all working effectively together with Israeli support. The priority is eliminating the longer-term offensive threat posed by Iranian missiles and its nuclear weapons programme and then ensuring that a new Iranian leadership can maintain internal order.

According to the note, assessments conducted before the strikes began reportedly concluded that a hardline successor would likely emerge. The expectation is not, therefore, of democratic liberalisation, but of controlled continuity, with parallels to the Rodríguez succession following Nicolás Maduro’s arrest in Venezuela.

The firm estimates “that intense strikes will continue for several more days and then taper off. By that point, Iran’s offensive missile and drone capabilities are expected to have been severely degraded. Flare-ups may occur, but they are likely to be limited. Crucially, Iran’s regional proxies are not expected to enter the conflict in a decisive way.”

Three markers are set out to watch over the next 10 days:

• First, a visible reduction in US and Israeli strike tempo;

• Second, Iranian missile and drone launches slowing to near zero; and

• Third, a new Iranian leadership becoming visible on the horizon.

The firm’s assessment is that all three developments are likely.

If that forecast holds, the worst of the military confrontation will be over within days, not months. Iran’s offensive capacity will have been sharply reduced, escalation will plateau, and the conflict will transition into a political consolidation phase.

The risks, however, are significant.

The note does warn that “if the United States and its allies run short of key munitions before fully degrading Iran’s capabilities, the conflict could stretch into a prolonged campaign. In that scenario, Iran could fracture into competing power centres, destabilising the Middle East for years. A drawn-out conflict might also necessitate the direct physical entry of US Middle Eastern allies into the fray, triggering a wider regional war.”

This scenario was, however, presented as significantly less likely than one in which hostilities plateau and then reduce.