On 27 October, Israel held its first election since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks. Voters came out in droves, delivering the highest turnout in a quarter of a century and a stinging rebuke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the way he’s been running the country.

The issues on the table included the war, how it began, how it was prosecuted, and why there has still been no official commission of inquiry into its failures. Other major questions included the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service, the state of the economy, Iran and the broader regional and international environment, as well as issues of religion and personal identity.

The results saw Netanyahu’s Likud party lose approximately 15% of its vote, while his right-wing coalition also lost ground, taking it below the 61-seat threshold required for a majority in the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) and leaving him without an obvious path to forming a new government.

Netanyahu’s principal opponent is Gadi Eisenkot, a former general who lost a son and nephew during the war that followed 7 October. He leads a diverse and unwieldy bloc of left-wingers, centrists and right-wingers, united largely by their personal opposition to Netanyahu and his coalition. However, this bloc also lacks the seats necessary to form a government.

Holding the balance of power are the Arab parties, whose communities recorded their highest turnout in an Israeli election so far. Theoretically, Eisenkot and the Arab parties could form a government. However, some of these parties are explicitly anti-Zionist and have expressed sympathy for Hamas’s actions, making it difficult for the right-wing parties in Eisenkot’s bloc to sit alongside them.

And in the tortuous process of forming a government in which nobody has an obvious majority, Bibi still holds the cards.

Card 1 – The Mandate

Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog (whose mother, incidentally, was a Wits graduate), has the responsibility of deciding who gets the first opportunity to form a government.

Netanyahu still leads the largest party and the largest bloc, with 53 seats compared to Eisenkot’s 49 at the time of writing. This makes him the most likely candidate to receive the first mandate from Herzog.

That would give Netanyahu the first opportunity to persuade a party from Eisenkot’s bloc to cross the floor and join his coalition.

Card 2 – The Prime Ministership

While coalition negotiations continue, the country remains under a caretaker government headed by the outgoing prime minister. This allows Netanyahu to retain the trappings of power and, importantly, the ability to continue making decisions on behalf of the country.

This could become particularly significant if Donald Trump decides, as he has threatened, to “finish the job” with Iran after the midterm elections on 3 November.

Should Israel come under attack, opposition parties could face pressure to join Netanyahu in presenting a united front during wartime. Such a development could shift the balance of political forces, at least temporarily, in his favour.

Card 3 – Time

If Netanyahu cannot form a government, the president can give another candidate an opportunity to do so, with each generally receiving about 28 days to assemble a coalition. If these efforts fail, Israel could find itself heading back to the polls.

This scenario may suit Bibi just fine, as the current result is arguably about as good as Eisenkot’s bloc is likely to achieve.

The election saw lower turnout among Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox partners, record participation among Arab voters, and votes lost by right-wing parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold. These wasted votes cost Netanyahu’s bloc valuable seats.

Eisenkot also benefited from widespread public anger towards Netanyahu and the Israeli tradition of citizens flying home from abroad to cast their ballots.

None of these circumstances is likely to repeat itself in another election, all to Netanyahu’s benefit.

Card 4 – History

Military disasters often take time to work their way through Israel’s electoral system.

The watchword for the left-wing government after the first election following the near-defeat of Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War was, “It could have been worse.” It did badly but didn’t lose power. The reckoning came four years later, when Israel elected its first right-wing government under Menachem Begin, ending decades of left-wing dominance.

Similarly, the failures of the 2006 Lebanon War helped propel businessman Naftali Bennett into politics. It would take another six years before he established his own party, a journey that eventually saw him become prime minister in 2021. Today, he remains a significant opposition figure.

The war that followed 7 October has only officially been over for a year. If history is any guide, the real political reckoning may still lie some way down the road.

Card 5 – The International Environment

Traditional Israeli allies in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Canada, increasingly concerned about their left-wing and Islamist flanks in domestic politics, have engaged in diplomatic word games, recognising a Palestinian state without taking meaningful steps towards establishing one, while sanctioning goods from the disputed territories.

As recent events in France have demonstrated, these are largely performative and meaningless policies that have done little to placate radical elements in those countries. At the same time, they have helped create a sense of international siege for the public of Israel, something that can prove politically useful to an incumbent right-wing prime minister.

Netanyahu also remains the world's undisputed Trump whisperer. Few international politicians can claim to enjoy such a close relationship with the American president.

With Trump having only two years left in office, a smooth, English-speaking prime minister with strong relationships in the White House may appear to many Israeli voters to be the safer bet.

The Card He Doesn’t Hold – The Knesset

Amid all these advantages, the opposition holds one important card of its own.

Once the new Knesset is sworn in, Netanyahu’s bloc will be in the minority, even as his caretaker government continues to govern during coalition negotiations.

With clever parliamentary manoeuvring, Eisenkot and his allies could begin advancing legislation that appeals to their voters, including a universal military draft law, a state commission of inquiry into 7 October, and potentially even legislation introducing term limits that could affect Netanyahu’s ability to return to office.

Such moves could shift the political momentum and alter the balance of power during coalition negotiations.

As the coalition talks unfold, the parliamentary arithmetic will begin in earnest. There are myriad possible outcomes: a unity government of Zionist parties, confidence-and-supply arrangements with Arab parties, one or more parties switching allegiances between the blocs, or yet another election.

Israeli politics has a habit of delivering surprises. But for the moment, Bibi still holds the cards.