Right-wing Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow lead over incumbent President Lula da Silva (known as Lula) ahead of the country’s presidential run-off on Sunday, raising the prospect of another conservative electoral victory in Latin America.

A poll released last week placed Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, on 46%, against 44% for Lula. The two-percentage-point difference was within the poll’s margin of error.

A separate poll put Bolsonaro on 47% and Lula on 45%, narrowing the former’s lead from four percentage points the previous week.

Bolsonaro had already surprised political analysts by defeating Lula in the first round of voting at the beginning of the month, securing 47% against the Lula’s 45%.

The election comes amid a broader shift towards the political right across Latin America, where conservative candidates have won a series of important elections.

In December 2025, José Antonio Kast won Chile’s presidency with approximately 58% of the vote, defeating left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara. His victory followed a campaign centred on crime, immigration, and economic reform.

In neighbouring Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz’s victory in October 2025 ended nearly two decades of dominance by the socialist Movement Towards Socialism party.

Honduras also shifted right in December 2025, electing conservative Nasry Asfura after the defeat of the governing left-wing party. In Ecuador, centre-right President Daniel Noboa secured re-election in April 2025 with 56% of the vote.

These developments follow the election of libertarian Javier Milei as Argentina’s president in 2023, where he has pursued sweeping economic reforms aimed at reducing the size of the state.

Across the region, concerns over crime, inflation, immigration, and weak economic performance have helped conservative candidates challenge established left-wing parties.

A Bolsonaro victory would bring Latin America’s largest economy into closer political alignment with several of its neighbours and strengthen the region’s emerging conservative bloc.