Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is facing the most serious threat to his rule since returning to power in 2010, with Hungary’s parliamentary election tomorrow shaping into a high-stakes contest that could reverberate far beyond the country’s borders.

Most recent opinion polls place Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party well ahead of Orban’s Fidesz. One poll put Tisza on 58%, against Fidesz on 35%, while another showed a sharp shift in public expectations, with 47% of respondents believing Tisza would win, compared with 35% for Fidesz. That change has broken the long-standing perception that Orban (who was also the country’s prime minister between 1998 and 2002) is politically unbeatable.

The election is being watched closely across Europe because Orban has become the most recognisable symbol of the nationalist and illiberal right in Europe in recent years. He has drawn support from both American President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, clashed repeatedly with the European Union, and built a reputation as one of the bloc’s most pro-Russian leaders.

That international dimension was underlined this week by a visit from American Vice-President JD Vance, who travelled to Budapest to publicly back Orban just days before the vote. Speaking alongside the Hungarian leader, Vance accused the European Union of interfering in Hungary’s election and framed Orban as a defender of national sovereignty and Western civilisation. The intervention was a striking one, both because it showed how invested the Trump administration is in Orban’s survival and because it reinforced the sense that this election has become a wider test of strength for the nationalist right on both sides of the Atlantic.

But the same anti-elite anger that has driven populist movements elsewhere appears to be turning against Orban. Many Hungarians, especially younger voters, increasingly see Fidesz as the country’s corrupt ruling elite, after years of allegations that state contracts and public resources have benefited people close to the prime minister. Orban and his allies deny wrongdoing.

Magyar, a former Fidesz insider, has emerged as an unlikely challenger by focusing less on global ideological battles, and more on domestic issues, such as healthcare, education, transport, and corruption. If he emerges the victor, it will mark not only the end of Orban’s long grip on power, but also a serious setback for the new post-liberal right, which is advancing in many Western countries.