Cuba’s Energy Crisis May Leave South Africa as Last Man Standing as US Embargo Cuts Off Foreign Oil Supplies

Cuba’s communist government is close to running out of oil after the United States (US) tightened economic sanctions, cutting the island off from the subsidised foreign fuel that for years helped sustain its failing control economy. With reserves expected to last only weeks, the country faces worsening blackouts and economic disruption that threaten to deepen hardship for its people.

The crisis also carries diplomatic consequences for South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC) has once again moved to defend Havana, exposing a familiar tension between liberation-era loyalties and present-day realities as the party continues to back an increasingly isolated authoritarian regime in a far less forgiving global energy and sanctions environment.

South Africa has emerged on the opposite side of Washington. Earlier this year, the ANC condemned the US embargo in strong terms, declaring: “The ANC condemns in the strongest terms the imposition of a total blockade on fuel supplies to Cuba,” and referring separately to “the criminal US blockade against Cuba”. The statements reflect long-standing liberation-era ties, but they also highlight the ANC’s role as one the key pillars of anti-Americanism in the world.

Energy lies at the heart of Cuba’s economic vulnerability. The island needs around 100 000 barrels of oil per day to keep electricity generation, transport, and basic industry functioning. While Cuba is not completely without oil, what it can produce itself is both insufficient and low in quality. Domestic production is estimated at roughly 35 000 to 40 000 barrels per day of heavy, high-sulphur crude from fields along the northern coast. That oil can only be used in ageing power plants and limited industrial facilities and cannot sustain the wider economy.

For years, much of the gap between Cuba’s needs and its own production was filled by Venezuela, which supplied up to 40 000 barrels per day under preferential arrangements. That external lifeline has now collapsed as the US has moved to assume control over Venezuela’s oil production, leaving Havana dependent almost entirely on its low-quality domestic output and dwindling stockpiles. Analysts estimate those reserves could be exhausted within six to eight weeks if no alternative supply is secured.

China and Russia have thus far shown no firm inclination to rescue the beleaguered communist outpost in the Caribbean.

The consequences are already visible. Power outages have become more frequent, public transport has been curtailed, and key sectors such as food production and healthcare support services are under growing strain. Once fuel stocks are depleted, the impact will be felt not only in electricity generation but across the entire economy, further worsening living conditions for ordinary Cubans.

The United Nations (UN) has warned that the situation could deteriorate rapidly. Earlier this month, a UN spokesperson said the Secretary-General was “extremely concerned” about Cuba’s humanitarian outlook, cautioning that conditions could “worsen or collapse” if the country’s oil needs go unmet.

For Havana, ideological solidarity offers little relief from physical reality. Buying oil on the open market is prohibitively expensive, shipping and insurance are constrained by sanctions, domestic production cannot be scaled quickly, and renewed Venezuelan support appears unlikely. Without securing an additional 60 000 barrels per day, Cuba is likely to enter a full-scale energy emergency by early autumn.

For Pretoria, the fall of the government in Havana will be a particularly serious blow. Following the toppling of Maduro in Venezuela, the neutralisation of Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the accommodative trade and diplomatic deals struck with Brazil, Columbia, and several African economies, South Africa’s government stands out as arguably the last prominent source of anti-Americanism in a world that has rapidly come to terms with the changes brought by Trump’s America.