How America and Israel are Dismantling Iran's Missile Arsenal

When the United States (US) and Israel launched their joint military campaign against Iran at the end of last month, media commentary largely focused on one factor: Iran's formidable missile and drone arsenal.

Estimates suggest Iran possesses around 3 000 advanced missiles and possibly tens of thousands of drones, though the numbers remain speculative. Iran has used this arsenal to cause significant damage to its Gulf neighbours, US military bases across the region, and Israel. Iran’s war strategy relies on launching these weapons in massive quantities, intending to overwhelm its enemies.

But as each day of this conflict passes, Iran’s deep arsenal is becoming strategically irrelevant.

According to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, Iran launched 428 ballistic missiles on the first day of the war. On Tuesday, 11 days later, that number had dropped to 24, a decline of 95%.

The reason for this decline is straightforward. The US and Israel are strategically targeting and dismantling the systems responsible for launching Iran's missiles. It is this decisive action that is shifting the course of the conflict.

The US and Israel are primarily targeting what are called transporter‑erector‑launchers (TELs). A TEL is a truck that carries missiles, lifts them upright, and then fires them. US and Israeli aircraft, backed by advanced intelligence, have been striking these launchers with exceptional precision.

US forces have also hit Iran’s underground Damavand missile base, a fortified complex built to shelter and maintain launch systems and other ballistic capabilities. By targeting Damavand, the US is hitting the very infrastructure that supports the recovery and redeployment of Iran’s missile launch fleet.

Israel reported on 6 March that Iran had fewer than 200 ballistic missile launchers remaining, down from roughly 500 at the start of the conflict. With the US striking Iran’s ability to refurbish their launchers, this declining trajectory might be terminal.

Targeting launchers is not only tactically effective, it also solves a major economic problem: the cost of defending against a missile is far more than the cost of attacking with one.

Interceptors, the missiles fired to destroy incoming rounds mid-flight, are significantly more expensive and complex to produce than the missiles and drones they are designed to stop. To achieve a 90% interception rate, operators must fire two interceptors per incoming round. The costs compound quickly.

On the night of 13 April 2024, Iran launched a mass strike against Israel. Analysts estimate Tehran spent between $80 and $100 million on the munitions fired that night. Stopping them cost Israel and its allies approximately $1 billion. The action cost ten times as much to defend as it cost to attack.

Additionally, Iran can build missiles faster than its adversaries can build interceptors. US officials estimate that Iran manufactures more than 100 ballistic missiles per month. In comparison, the US produces only six or seven interceptors monthly due to the advanced nature of the manufacturing process involved.

Reports suggest the United Arab Emirates, which has suffered 52% of Iran’s attacks in the current conflict, may have already used about 40% of its interceptor supply in under two weeks.

US and Israeli forces have achieved a decisive operational advantage by degrading Iran’s launch capacity. This threshold is marking a shift from mass, simultaneous missile strikes, the doctrine Iran employed to overwhelm air defences, toward sporadic, lower‑volume harassment.