Mali is reeling after rebel forces launched major assaults in key points around the country over the past two weeks. These included hitting the capital city, Bamako, an apparent suicide attack that killed the defence minister, and the capture of the northern city of Kidal.

Mali has for years been fighting multiple insurgencies. The first insurgency is against the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and is in the country’s north. The FLA is based among the ethnic Tuareg population and demands territorial autonomy or independence. Another, of greater concern to the outside world, is the fight against Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Islamist group linked to Al Qaeda. JNIM has been described as one of the most heavily armed and effective jihadist groups in the world and has an apparently growing influence across the Sahel region.

The FLA and JNIM have been cooperating, with the FLA having reportedly agreed to enforce a level of compliance with Islamic law to make this possible.

While Mali was once seen as one of Africa’s standout reformers, its military has been encroaching on its politics since a coup in 2012. Widespread discontent has arisen from economic troubles, government corruption, and the instability and insecurity occasioned by the insurgency.

In the wake of coups in 2020 and 2021 (which founded Mali’s current military administration), the junta expelled a French military deployment and turned to Russia for assistance. Russian operatives (the so-called Africa Corps and formerly known as the Wagner Group) have engaged in counter-insurgency strategies that critics contend have alienated parts of the population and generated sympathy for the insurgents. In the latest round of fighting, Russian forces retreated, dealing a blow to their prestige with the Malian government and the insurgents. It is believed that their withdrawal was allowed by the insurgents, as a gesture towards a relationship between Russia and a future government controlled by the insurgents.

The Russian government has, however, committed itself to maintaining its support for the Malian government against the insurgents.

JNIM has also succeeded in imposing, since last year, a partial blockade on Bamako, with a statement last week that “no one will be allowed in anymore”. This has restricted the flow of supplies, causing shortages and raising prices, particularly of fuel. The city of Ségou, which lies less than 80km from the capital, has been subject to a complete blockade, not only depriving it of supplies, but stranding thousands of people and vehicles along roads, without fuel, food, or water.

Despite the pressure placed on the Malian government, it is not apparent that the insurgents are in a position to deal a knockout blow.

Nevertheless, the emergence of an Al Qaeda-controlled state in Africa is not inconceivable. This could potentially compound the insurgencies in neighbouring states. In addition, there is a real risk of intra-jihadist conflict, since groups linked to the Islamic State have accused JNIM of betraying Islamist principles, along the pattern of what occurred in Syria.

The entrenchment of a Jihadist government would have implications for the Southern African region too, even though Mali is far removed. Jihadist groups are active in Mozambique, for example, and the fall of a secular government to an ideologically kindred group could provide significant impetus.