Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged ahead of his political rivals in the country’s general election, but the result has left him without a parliamentary majority and facing potentially difficult negotiations to remain in power.

With 90% of votes counted following Tuesday’s election, Netanyahu’s Likud party and its right-wing and religious allies were projected to secure 53 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was projected to win 48 seats, while Arab parties were on course for a historic 19 seats. Neither major bloc had reached the 61 seats needed to govern independently.

The results are a political lifeline for Netanyahu, who has faced intense criticism over his handling of the Gaza war, the failures surrounding the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023, and the fate of Israeli hostages. Despite those controversies, his Likud party remains the largest political force in the country, with a projected 26 parliamentary seats.

The election has also produced a significant shift in the balance of parliamentary power. Arab parties turned out their constituents at record levels, with videos emerging of people arriving at polling stations on camels in Israel’s southern desert regions. The two Arab political groupings, the Joint List and Ra’am, are projected to hold a combined 19 seats, almost doubling their representation and potentially giving them decisive influence over the next government. The Joint List is an alliance of three parties, Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, representing a mixture of communist, Arab nationalist, and Palestinian nationalist politics. Its constituent parties are anti-Zionist and strongly opposed to Israel’s military actions in Gaza.

Ra’am, by contrast, is an Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas that has adopted a more pragmatic approach to Israeli politics, in 2021becoming the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition. This distinction is critical to the coalition arithmetic. While Ra’am has demonstrated a willingness to govern alongside Jewish parties, the Joint List is more ideologically hostile to the Israeli political establishment. Major Jewish opposition parties have previously ruled out relying on Arab parties to form a government, creating a serious obstacle to removing Netanyahu from office, even if the combined opposition commands a parliamentary majority.

For Eisenkot, whose newly formed Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats, the result presents both an opportunity and a dilemma. Speaking after the election, he declared, “The public voted for change. The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust.” He also pledged to pursue a government committed to “universal military service” and “dismantling Hamas”.

The chart below shows the projected seat tally for each party and bloc, based on the votes counted to date.

Military service became an important election issue, with disagreements over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men placing pressure on Netanyahu’s previous coalition. The election also tested public confidence in Israel’s security leadership following the Hamas attacks and subsequent wars. Voter turnout reached nearly 80%, its highest level since 1999.

President Isaac Herzog has urged political leaders to compromise rather than force the country into another election. Speaking yesterday, he said, “We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So, I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind.” As president, Herzog has the role to begin formal consultations with party leaders next week before selecting a candidate to attempt to form a government.

The immediate options include Netanyahu persuading opposition lawmakers to join his coalition, Eisenkot securing support from Arab parties, or the formation of a broader national unity government. All present political difficulties, particularly given the divisions over security policy, military service, and Netanyahu’s leadership. If negotiations fail, Israel could face another general election early next year.

Other factors that could shift the balance of power include moves by the opposition in the Knesset to pass new legislation before a government is formed to pressure Netanyahu, and the potential for renewed fighting between Israeli and American forces and Iran.

For now, the election has demonstrated Netanyahu’s continuing electoral resilience, but it has not secured his political survival. Israel’s next government will depend less on which party finished first than on whether its political leaders can negotiate a workable parliamentary majority.