SA Declares Cold War with US – Cuba’s Fate Shows What That Means When the Americans Notice

American President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Cuba by ordering measures that are cutting the island off from oil supplies, using fuel shortages to force political change.

In an executive order issued at the end of last month, Trump declared that the Cuban government poses an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the national security and foreign policy of the United States (US). The order authorises penalties against any country that supplies oil to Cuba, even indirectly. The instruction is straightforward. Countries that help keep Cuba’s fuel system running will face economic consequences from the US.

Like any other country, oil is vital to Cuba’s economy and state capacity. It is required to generate electricity, run public transport, pump water, power hospitals, and move food and medical supplies. When oil deliveries stop, disruption follows quickly and spreads across daily life.

Cuba used to rely on subsidised oil from Venezuela in order to artificially sustain its economy. Since the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American special forces, oil shipments from that country have stopped. Mexico has also agreed to halt its shipments following American pressure.

Energy analysts now estimate that Cuba has between 15 to 20 days of oil remaining at current consumption levels. Blackouts are spreading. Fuel is being rationed. Public transport has been cut back. Hospitals and water systems are operating under mounting strain.

The US is applying pressure because it regards Cuba as a hostile, authoritarian state. Cuba is a one-party communist dictatorship that has destroyed its own economy, suppresses political opposition, restricts free speech, and imprisons dissenters. Its economic collapse is not the result of bad luck or foreign conspiracy but of decades of central planning, state control, and political repression.

Washington also views Cuba as a destabilising actor in the region. The Cuban state has long exported revolutionary ideology globally, provided intelligence and security assistance to authoritarian governments, and offered support to militant and extremist movements aligned against US interests.

Against that background, the oil embargo is intended to deny the Cuban government the resources it uses to sustain its security apparatus and foreign operations.

This is how economic pressure is applied today.

There is no military confrontation. Instead, access to fuel, trade, and finance is narrowed until the affected state can no longer manage the strain. Cuba has experienced this before. What stands out now is the speed with which the pressure has taken effect.

The Cuban case also clarifies why political language matters elsewhere.

In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa leads a governing party whose secretary general, Fikile Mbalula, has openly described the relationship with the US as a “Cold War”. Mbalula was not speaking off script. As secretary general, he was articulating the position of the dominant faction inside the African National Congress (ANC), the faction led by Ramaphosa.

During the original Cold War, countries framed in these terms were not merely criticised. They were treated as hostile. That treatment took the form of trade restrictions, financial pressure, and energy isolation. Cuba became one of the clearest examples of how damaging that approach could be.

The current oil embargo shows that this logic remains intact. When Washington decides that a relationship has moved from being difficult to being adversarial, the response is primarily economic. Pressure is applied through energy supply, shipping access, and trade exposure.

Cuba’s fuel crisis did not begin with a military incident or a diplomatic breakdown. It began with a decision in Washington to apply pressure at the country’s weakest point. The result is an energy shortage now threatening electricity supply, water access, healthcare, and food distribution.

Trump’s decision marks one of the most forceful uses of economic pressure against Cuba in decades. It also underlines a simple reality. When relations with the US deteriorate far enough, the consequences usually arrive through supply chains and markets, not speeches.

Ramaphosa and the ANC should take note.