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As the American campaign of “maximum pressure” towards Cuba continues, officials from the island’s communist regime confirmed last week that negotiations between the two countries were ongoing. But observers point out that its crisis runs much deeper than American policy.

According to Alejandro García del Toro, deputy director general for United States (US) affairs at Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a meeting in Havana earlier in the month between American and Cuban officials was “conducted with respect and professionalism”. This was the first meeting of representatives of the two countries in Cuba since a reestablishment of relations in 2016.

Cuba has been reeling under the effects of American sanctions instituted through an Executive Order signed by US President Donald Trump in late January this year, which called out Cuba’s anti-American posture and repressive internal governance; notably, it threatened punitive tariffs against countries supplying Cuba with oil.

This came after the arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in early January. Venezuela had provided heavily subsidised oil to Cuba, a resource essential to its energy needs; when these deliveries were terminated, so did Cuba’s ability to maintain anything like a constant electricity supply. Blackouts have reached up to 15 hours a day, public transport has ceased to function, and rubbish goes uncollected on the streets, with the result being that the entire economy has stalled.

While Cuba appealed to supportive countries for help, nothing beyond some humanitarian supplies and one shipment of Russian oil (equivalent to about an eighth of its monthly needs) has been received.

Amid gruelling economic hardship, widespread disaffection is now also evident among Cuba’s population. This is increasingly directed at Cuba’s authorities: in March, protestors in the city of Morón attacked the offices of the local Communist Party.

But Cuba’s crisis is only partially attributable to the current American pressure. Cuba’s economy is estimated to be 15% smaller today than in 2018, while the infant mortality rate doubled over that period. Food shortages have been chronic for years. Emigration hit hitherto unknown numbers, with over a million people leaving between 2021 and 2026.

Through a conglomerate, the Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA (GAESA), the military controls around 60% of the economy, while the Castro dynasty – represented today by the 94-year-old Raúl Castro – retains a significant hold on the state.

Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at the American University in Washington, says it is a system unwilling to reform. “Without open debate, independent associations, and real feedback loops, policy errors last longer, competence is harder to reward, and failure is easier to hide. Over time, the system loses talent, and the state becomes less capable even as the crisis becomes more complex,” he comments.

He adds that the Cuban state has typically turned to foreign patrons for support, though this has prolonged the survival of a dysfunctional system rather than creating space for reform.

South Africa is also one of Cuba’s last remaining allies, mainly due to ideological ties between the Cuban ruling regime and the African National Congress (ANC) rather than because of any real material benefit for South Africa. This has also been the case with South Africa’s support of other American adversaries, such as Maduran Venezuela and the current Iranian regime, with the ANC putting its ideological wants above the material needs of South Africa. This has seen relations between South Africa and the US fall to almost unprecedented lows, although there have been some recent signs of thawing, particularly from Washington. This may also make South Africa rethink its unwavering support for authoritarian regimes such as Cuba, especially given the fact that the regime may be on the brink of collapse.

America has listed among its conditions for relaxing sanctions the ending of political repression and liberalising Cuba’s economy. It’s difficult to see Cuba’s authorities acceding to these demands, but also difficult to imagine Cuba enduring unless such reforms are undertaken.