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A new poll published in The New York Times shows Republican support falling ahead of the 2026 congressional elections, chiefly as a consequence of frustration at the US economy.

Asked which party’s candidate they would support in their district if the election were held today, 50% of registered voters chose the Democratic candidate, while 39% chose the Republican candidate.

That gives Democrats an 11-point lead.

The trend is notable. In April 2025, Democrats led Republicans by three points, at 47% to 44%. By September 2025, that lead had narrowed to two points, at 47% to 45%. In January 2026, Democrats were ahead by five points, at 48% to 43%.

The latest poll now puts Democrats on 50% and Republicans on 39%, meaning Republican support has fallen six points since September 2025 and four points since January 2026.

The result suggests that Republican support is weakening among registered voters as the 2026 congressional election cycle approaches.

Republican support appears to be falling largely because voters are turning against Trump’s handling of the economy.

In May 2026, just 33% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, made up of 15% who strongly approved and 18% who somewhat approved.

By contrast, 64% disapproved, including 50% who strongly disapproved.

That is a sharp deterioration. In April 2025, some 42% approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. By September 2025, approval had risen slightly to 44%. In January 2026, it had fallen to 40%. It has now dropped to 33%.

The intensity is especially damaging. Strong approval has fallen from 24% in April 2025 to 15% now, while strong disapproval has risen from 42% to 50%.

South Africa’s government has stalled and obfuscated in reaching a trade and investment deal with the US, partly in the hope that the November midterms would render Trump a lame-duck president and that South Africa could instead look to do a deal with a future Democratic administration that would not insist on the empowerment, foreign policy, and property rights conditions that the Trump administration has been pressing for.