US Midterms Could Reshape South Africa’s Washington Strategy, Advisory Firm Warns

Drawing on historical trends, the firm notes that in 90% of House midterm elections over the past 80 years, the party occupying the White House has lost ground. Current polling suggests Republicans are likely to lose control of the House in November, with the Senate also vulnerable. If that occurs, President Donald Trump’s legislative programme would effectively stall. While a Democrat-controlled Congress could not easily reverse policy, especially if the Senate remains in Republican hands, it could obstruct administration policy and legislation, complicating further trade or sanctions measures.

According to the advisory note, this matters directly for Pretoria. A Democratic-controlled House would be expected to push back against aspects of Trump’s South Africa policy, especially those relating to Afrikaner refugees.

The firm suggests the South African administration appears to be banking on such an outcome, alongside a pending ruling from the Supreme Court of the United States on tariffs, to secure relief on trade measures and continued access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

However, the note questions whether this strategy is economically meaningful. AGOA has historically accounted for just 2.5% of South African exports. Even full preferential access and lower headline tariffs would have only a marginal impact on GDP. The firm argues that AGOA functions largely as a development support mechanism for underdeveloped economies, and that South Africa should instead be seeking a broader trade and investment pact that only the White House can authorise.

The advisory also flags near-term risk. Angered by South Africa’s expulsion of Israel’s most senior diplomat, the Trump administration may seek to accelerate sanctions legislation before any loss of House control narrows its options.

Looking further ahead, the firm cautions that a Trump-aligned successor could plausibly win the 2028 presidential election. In that scenario, reliance on congressional opposition rather than executive engagement could leave Pretoria exposed.

The midterms may offer short-term political breathing room. But according to the advisory note, they do little to alter the underlying strategic and economic calculus shaping United States-South Africa relations.