Washington Is Done with Managed Decline — Is SA?

South African foreign policy officials would do well to study Marco Rubio’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend. In setting out what the United States (US) now expects of its allies, he effectively outlined the terms on which future trade, mineral, and strategic deals will be struck.

Perhaps the most important line from his speech was this: “We have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline.”

Rubio told delegates that “we gather here today as members of a historic alliance, an alliance that saved and changed the world”, invoking the Cold War origins of the forum and the shared struggle against Soviet communism. But he warned that the post-Cold War belief in “the end of history” had been “a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over 5 000 years of recorded human history”.

Rubio argued that Western governments had embraced “a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade” even as rivals “protected their economies and subsidised their companies to systematically undercut ours,” leading to deindustrialisation and the loss of supply chain control. He was blunt that the era of placing “the so-called global order above the vital interests of our people and our nations” is over.

Under President Donald Trump, he said, the US “will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration,” insisting on “seriousness and reciprocity” from allies. Washington’s objective, he added, is “a Western supply chain for critical minerals not vulnerable to extortion from other powers”, alongside renewed industrial capacity and technological leadership.

For South African policy makers there are many indicators in Rubio’s comments about the kind of approach that will be needed to secure an expanded trade and investment pact with Washington. Last week The Common Sense reported that to secure such a pact, South Africa would need to send a top-flight envoy to Washington with a mandate and a plan in his or her pocket, centred around minerals and energy and demonstrating willingness to take American concerns seriously.

The Common Sense has repeatedly reported on how striking such a pact would be to the mutual advantage of both South Africa and the United States, and even to the African National Congress, should it wish one day to restore its national electoral majority.