This year could prove to be one of the toughest the African National Congress (ANC) has ever faced.

While it is premature to write the party’s obituary, the ANC is heading into the next local government elections, which must be held within the next 12 months, with weak polling numbers and a clear erosion of public confidence in its policies.

The party suffered its worst electoral performance in the 2024 national election, losing its outright majority for the first time. The forthcoming local government elections are likely to be even more punishing, particularly in South Africa’s major metros and urban centres.

Recent polling by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), published by The Common Sense, shows the national gap between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA) has narrowed to just five points. The ANC stands at 37% support, with the DA close behind on 32%. If these trends persist, the DA could overtake the ANC as the country’s most popular party within the next electoral cycle.

Although metro-specific polling is not yet available, current trends suggest the DA could surpass the ANC in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, eThekwini, and possibly Ekurhuleni, while retaining its majority in Cape Town. This would place the DA in a strong position to lead governing coalitions in most major cities, in some cases with the ANC reduced to a junior partner.

Policy credibility is also shifting. SRF polling shows 30% of respondents believe the DA has the best policies, compared to 22% for the ANC. On service delivery the gap is wider still, with 37% rating the DA as the best performer, versus just 16% for the ANC.

These trends closely track economic performance. In the early 2000s, when growth averaged around 5%, employment expanded, and services were rapidly rolled out, the ANC won nearly 70% of the vote in the 2004 election. As growth stagnated, that support steadily declined, falling to roughly 40% in the 2024 election.

While there are tentative signs of economic momentum, growth remains below 2%, insufficient to reduce unemployment or materially improve living standards. Under those conditions, further ANC support erosion is likely.

The party’s decline is not inevitable. Sustained growth above 5%, rising employment, and effective infrastructure delivery could restore voter confidence. But this would require a decisive break from key policies such as expropriation without compensation and race-based economic empowerment. Whether the ANC is willing to make that shift remains uncertain.

The year 2026 may prove decisive. The choice facing the ANC is stark. Persist with policies that suppress growth and accept continued decline, or return to pragmatism and economic growth. Only the latter offers a path to arrest the ANC’s long downward slide.