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The African National Congress (ANC) is likely to be practically wiped out in eThekwini in the local government elections (LGE), due to be held in November.

This is according to an analysis conducted by The Common Sense, which looked at historical election results in the biggest city in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as polling, which was conducted in the city.

It is the third piece of analysis that The Common Sense is doing into historical election results in South Africa’s major cities and towns. You can read our analysis of what could happen in the Gauteng metros here and in the Eastern Cape metros here.

eThekwini

The 2026 LGE in eThekwini is likely to see the ANC, the party that has governed the metro since South Africa’s current system of municipal governance was implemented in 2000, not even breach 10% of the vote. From being the single biggest party for over 20 years in the city, it is likely to come only fourth in the city in November.

In 2014 the ANC won nearly two-thirds of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) trailing by more than forty points, at 23.4%. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) was third with 3.2% of the vote, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) managed 2.6%

In 2019, the ANC saw a sharp decline, falling to 55.6%, with the DA growing marginally to 23.2%. The EFF grew strongly, to 11.6%, with the IFP seeing marginal growth, to 4.3%.

The 2024 election was catastrophic for the ANC: it lost 40 points, winning only 15.2% of the vote.

The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), the ANC breakaway led by former president Jacob Zuma, won almost half the votes in the city, winning 48.1% of the total vote.

The DA won 24.0% of the vote, while the IFP once again saw some marginal growth, to 5.5%. The EFF saw its vote share also drop sharply, from 11.6% in 2019 to 2.8% in 2024, with many of its supporters in 2019 likely defecting to the MKP.

Comparing national elections to the subsequent local election shows a pattern that is becoming apparent across South Africa’s metros – the ANC generally does worse in the subsequent local election compared to the previous national election, while the DA does better. eThekwini is no different.

In 2016, the ANC lost about ten points compared to the 2014 national election, while the DA saw an increase of just under three points, to 26.9%. The EFF saw some growth, from 2.6% to 3.4%. The IFP also saw a small increase, winning 4.2% in 2016, up from 3.2% in 2014.

In 2021, the ANC drop compared to the previous national election was bigger, more than 13 points, dropping from 55.6% to 42.1%. The DA saw similar growth that it enjoyed between 2014 and 2016, growing to 26.0% from 23.2%, while the EFF remained flat in those two elections – 11.6% in 2019 and 10.5% in 2021. The IFP saw some growth, from 4.3% to 7.1%.

The Social Research Foundation (SRF), in conjunction with The Common Sense, also conducted polling in eThekwini, ahead of the 2026 LGE, and the polling fits in with the broad trend that has been observed between national and local elections.

In the SRF/The Common Sense polling, which was conducted in February and March this year, the ANC declines again, to 8.0%, while the DA grows to 28.0%. MKP is easily the biggest party in the municipality but will fail to win a majority if the polling is reflected in the election result, with 44.0% of people in the metro saying they would vote for Zuma’s party.

The EFF is polling at only 2.0% (similar to what it won in 2024) while the IFP is polling very well, at 18%.

In the upcoming LGE no party will win a majority in eThekwini, and the ANC will be reduced to a rump – a good election for the party will be if it manages to make it into double figures.

The city could be governed by a similar coalition to the one that formed after the 2024 elections in the province, when the ANC, IFP, and DA formed a coalition to keep thee MKP and the EFF out of power. The difference is that the IFP was the senior party in that provincial coalition, but the DA would be the senior party in a hypothetical municipal coalition in eThekwini between the DA, the IFP, and the ANC, which could change the dynamics.