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The uMkhonto weSizwe Party leads in the city, with the ANC now trailing both the MKP and the DA.

Fewer than one in five voters in eThekwini say they would vote for the African National Congress (ANC).

This is according to polling conducted by The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation* (SRF).

The polling was conducted between 8 and 31 July and polled 500 people in eThekwini. It had a margin of error of 4.4% and used a turnout model of 56%.

Respondents were asked who they would vote for if a local government election was held that day.

According to the poll, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) led the city with the support of 33% of likely voters. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was second on 23%, with the ANC third on 18%.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) had the support of 16% of likely voters, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) had the support of 4%. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) had the support of 3% of likely voters, the Minority Front (MF) 2%, and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) 1%.

No party in eThekwini came close to a majority, with the four largest parties separated by 15 percentage points.

Support for the MKP has declined since March 2026, when the SRF and The Common Sense last conducted a poll in eThekwini.

That poll found that the MKP had the support of 44% of likely voters, while the DA had the support of 28%. The IFP had the support of 18%, and the ANC the support of 8%.

The ANC's showing in the latest poll is well below the 42% it won in eThekwini in the 2021 local government elections.

The chart below shows support for political parties in eThekwini in the 2021 local government elections and in the SRF and The Common Sense's previous two rounds of polling.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.