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Electoral trends indicate that Mangaung (Bloemfontein) in the Free State could be governed by a coalition after the local government elections (LGE), which will be held in November.

This is according to an analysis conducted by The Common Sense which examined historical electoral trends since 2014.

An analysis has been conducted of the other seven metros, and you can read those here, here, here, and here.

Historical electoral trends

The African National Congress (ANC) had seen a decline in its support in Mangaung (the only metro in the Free State) since 2014 but not to the same degree in other metros, such as Johannesburg and eThekwini, where its decline has been nothing short of catastrophic.

In 2014, the ANC won just below two-thirds of the vote in the metro, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 21.5%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) winning 8.3%. Other parties won a collective 6.1%.

In 2019, the ANC saw a decline to 59.6% of the vote, while the DA dropped to 20.9%, and the EFF grew to 11.4%. Smaller parties won 8.1%.

The ANC saw its vote share decline by nearly 10 points between 2019 and 2024, falling from 59.6% to 51.3%, while the DA grew to 23.5%. The EFF also grew, to 13.5%, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) managed 1.6%. Smaller parties, other than the Big Four national parties, won 10.1%.

Juxtaposing the LGEs with the prior national election shows the DA generally does better in the subsequent LGE, while the ANC does worse, compared to the previous national election.

In 2016, the ANC won 56.5%, down from the 64.1% it won in 2014, while the DA went to 26.0%, from 21.5%. The EFF was flat on 8.7%, compared to 8.3%, while smaller parties secured 8.8%.

In 2021, the ANC narrowly held onto its majority, with 50.6% of the vote, but this was significantly below what it won in 2019, when it garnered almost 60% of the vote. The DA won more than a quarter of the vote, managing 25.7%, up from the 20.9% it won in 2019. The EFF was flat again, with the 11.3% it won in 2021 being almost identical to what it won in 2019. Small parties grew again, to 12.4%.

On the historical trend, over the past decade or so, this means the ANC is likely to lose its majority in Mangaung. It is still likely to receive more than 40% of the vote, with the DA likely to receive in the upper 20s. The EFF has also done well in the municipality historically and could be well placed to be a coalition partner to the ANC in Mangaung.

MK is unlikely to be a significant factor in the municipality, and while there has been some fracturing, with support for smaller parties growing, that has not been at the same scale as in most other municipalities.