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In the race for Johannesburg, Helen Zille has led the Democratic Alliance (DA) to a very important milestone, where its share of the black vote in the city now rivals that of the African National Congress (ANC).

Raw polling data produced by The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation (SRF), of black Johannesburg voters shows a highly competitive political environment. Note that raw data has to be distinguished from turnout-modelled data. This is what The Common Sense and the SRF usually publishes on a city such as Johannesburg, and those data are indicative of what an actual election result* on the day of the polling would have been. Raw data are simply the straight-up answers that respondents give when asked which party they support.

Those raw data put the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) at 28% of the black vote. That party is followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 21%, then the ANC at 18%, and the DA at 17%.

The data are set out in the chart below.

Readers should note that the data in question have a margin of error between 6% and 7%.

There are three things that stand out from the data.

The first is the MKP’s lead. But note that the figures in question were recorded at the joint peaks of the Phala Phala scandal and the March and March rallies and the effect, seen in a series of other poll questions, was to spike support for MKP upwards, which SRF analysts have reason to think has subsequently come off a bit.

The second is how contested and splintered Johannesburg’s black vote has become. There is great volatility in that number now, as voters look from the ANC to MKP, the EFF, the DA, and back again, depending on how news flows and public events develop. Where the black vote lands in Johannesburg on election day is going to be a roulette wheel of sorts.

The third is that the DA under Helen Zille is now a contender in that market as much as the ANC and the EFF are, and even as much as MKP is, when margins of error are taken into account.

The broader finding is nevertheless clear. Johannesburg’s black electorate is contested territory. No single party dominates, and four major parties are competing within a relatively narrow range of support.

*[Readers may find it interesting to know that on this question of raw data versus turnout data, SRF analysts show that whereas on the total raw sample the DA is polling at near 30%, on the turnout sample that number lifts to nearer 40%, and even above. The reason is that DA-leaning voters are highly motivated in the city, whereas ANC-leaning voters are depressed when they look at the state of their party.]