This is a paid article which your subscription is allowing you to read.

Polls conducted in July by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation* (SRF) found that the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) together command just over half of the likely vote in Tshwane.

Should this be replicated in the November local government elections (LGE), the DA and the FF+ could form a governing coalition in the capital.

Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a local government election were held “today”. The graph below shows the results for likely voters.

The DA polled 43% of likely voters and the FF+ 8%, a combined 51%.

The African National Congress (ANC) was on 32%.

ActionSA, which currently holds the mayoralty, polled 7%.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) were on 5% each. No other party polled above the margin of error.

The Common Sense last tracked the Tshwane race in the first quarter of 2026. At that point the DA polled 45% and the ANC 42% among likely voters, with the FF+ at 3%.

The chart below shows the LGE results in 2021 in Tshwane as well as the last two rounds of polling in the city.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.