On Wednesday, South Africans go to the polls for the seventh local government elections of the democratic era. It will no doubt be another milestone election in South Africa’s rapidly evolving politics. Here are a few things I am thinking about ahead of election day.

The Social Research Foundation (SRF) – a polling firm affiliated with this newspaper – has run regular polling on voter intentions towards the major political parties since the general elections in 2024.

I will leave the granular polling analysis to the experts at this publication, but the bottom line is that the African National Congress ANC currently stands at 32%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 26%, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) at 12%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 8%.

Wounded Buffalo

Of course, the results will play out in different ways across various municipalities, but should these aggregate numbers hold, it would represent a devastating outcome for the ANC.

This was a party that once bestrode South Africa’s political landscape like a dominant buffalo bull, recording nearly 70% of the vote in the 2004 national elections.

Since then, the buffalo has had to fend off attacks on both of its flanks. Its flesh is torn and scarred, its hide turning grey in the hot African sun.

How will the wounded old buffalo respond? Will it accept defeat and slump into the dirt, wheezing its final breaths? Or will it flail and thrash about, causing great damage to all around it?

In 2024, the ANC initially responded with shock to the loss of its first electoral majority at the national level (where it slumped to 40% of the vote). This was an historic outcome and brought an end to the era of single party dominance of the preceding three decades.

However, the ANC quickly clawed its way back into power via the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

The GNU is sometimes presented as the ANC graciously accepting defeat and welcoming other parties into the governance tent. However, the GNU was a useful vehicle for the party to stage a tactical retreat, reassess the balance of forces and recommit itself to the National Democratic Revolution (NDR).

The ANC does not see itself as an ordinary political party, but as a revolutionary movement representing the will of the people. Such self-regard does not lend itself to losing gracefully.

To be fair, the ANC has peacefully vacated office before, but how will it respond to a more widespread electoral loss? Unlike in the GNU at the political centre, where it was still the largest party, the ANC may find itself a junior party in a few key metros.

Enemies Or Rivals?

When assessing electoral politics, it is useful to distinguish between enemies and rivals.

An enemy usually represents the antithesis of a party’s ideological worldview, an alternative set of traditions and political culture. Enemies are the “other”, serving different constituencies with diametrically opposed interests.

In this case, the ANC and the DA are enemies.

Rivals are different. Rivals can share a similar world view while competing for the support of the same constituencies. Their competition can be more fierce, driven as it is by personalities and prestige.

The ANC’s rivals are MKP and the EFF. All three parties are part of the same NDR bloc of Marxist-Africanist organisations that together represent about two-thirds of the electorate. This ideological bloc has remained remarkably stable since 1994, but its underlying composition has changed.

Fraternal rivalry is the reason why the EFF refused to lend its parliamentary support to the ANC in 2021, which resulted in the ANC failing to achieve the two-thirds majority it needed to amend section 25 of the Constitution to enable expropriation without compensation (EWC). The EFF could not afford to appear less radical than the ANC.

Meanwhile, the DA’s main rival is ActionSA, followed by the FF+ and the Patriotic Alliance, which both target small groups of swing voters in the Afrikaans and coloured communities respectively (who also tend to support the DA).

One might think that ActionSA would make a far greater impact by teaming up with the DA to keep the ANC out of power, but this is not the case. ActionSA’s incentive is to undermine the DA at every turn, which is what it spends much of its time doing.

No Joy in Jozi?

In the City of Johannesburg, where I will be voting on Wednesday, the DA is leading in the most recent SRF polling at 36%, followed by the ANC at 22%, MKP at 11%, ActionSA at 9%, and the EFF at 6%.

Despite an energetic and disruptive campaign, it seems unlikely that Helen Zille will secure the outright majority that she craves.

I would be surprised if ActionSA does indeed get 9%. But even if it does, Zille’s DA would be wise to refuse a coalition with ActionSA, which would have considerable leverage as a kingmaker. This is what happened in Tshwane when Herman Mashaba knifed Cilliers Brink in the back and collapsed his government there in 2024.

It therefore seems likely that the DA’s traditional enemy (the ANC) would make for a more stable coalition partner in Joburg than a motley assortment of rivals. As a ratepayer, seeing the same ANC in power, albeit as a junior partner, is not a prospect I relish, but it might be a lot better than the current configuration.

The DA’s insistence on the larger party automatically holding the mayoral chain could be a stumbling block for Panyaza Lesufi, whose influence over the ANC in Gauteng remains strong. Lesufi might not be too keen on having a Mayor Zille in his backyard.

Not so Easy in eThekwini

I am always hesitant to make predictions about politics, but I am even more hesitant to prognosticate on KwaZulu-Natal. It is a black box that should be approached with a great degree of humility.

In eThekwini, MKP leads the way with 43%, followed by the DA at 28%, the ANC at 13%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 7%. The DA has ruled out working with MKP, so that leaves Jacob Zuma’s party with only the ANC and the IFP to choose from. The old enemy, the IFP, might be the safer option.

South African politics is about to change yet again. Whatever happens, remember to woo your enemies, beware your rivals and always keep an eye on the wounded buffalo.

Ansara is CEO of the Free Market Foundation.