The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win 30.2% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in the Ekurhuleni in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the ANC on 22.2%.

The predictions, published on Thursday afternoon, are based on results from 27.1% of voting districts having been declared in the metro. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that ActionSA will secure 19.3% of the metro vote, followed by the uMkhonto WeSizwe Party (MKP) on 7.0% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 6.1%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the metro.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 52.7% for the East Rand.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.