EXCLUSIVE: ANC Voters Prefer DA as Coalition Partner Over Anyone Else

A coalition between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) is the most popular governing arrangement among ANC voters.

This is according to a poll* conducted last month by the Social Research Foundation.

With a view to the forthcoming local government elections respondents were asked what their preferred coalition lineup would be.

The proportion of ANC voters who supported an ANC/DA lineup was 49%.

Nineteen percent preferred a coalition between the ANC and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, while 11% preferred a coalition between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Fourteen percent were undecided or preferred not to answer.

Contrary to misinformation circulating in parts of the media, the data shows that of ANC supporters who have a view on whom the party should form a coalition with a strong majority prefer that the ANC work with the DA.

Polling data broadly has shown that ANC voters are open to more centrist, stability-focused coalition politics than the party’s internal rhetoric often implies.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that the data lines up perfectly with trends in ANC support over the past 30 years. When the ANC acts pragmatically to lift investment levels and secure economic growth its support increases; when it adopts populist ideas its support declines.

According to Cronje, “Its 2024 defeat was the consequence of a decade-plus of populist ideas that alienated its support base while undermining the economic growth necessary to lift living standards... [This is] completely at odds with a lot of thinking. South Africa’s public opinion baseline is very centrist, very moderate, and very sensible. This is perhaps the most powerful countervailing force in favour of South Africa’s long-term success.”

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.