South Africa has entered a period of cautious optimism as daily life begins to show signs of improvement.

Energy stability is returning, infrastructure is moving again, and political co-operation inside the Government of National Unity (GNU) is producing exactly the kind of positive outcomes that informed analysts had predicted when it was formed in June 2024.

According to a new Social Research Foundation poll* a majority of voters now believe the GNU will succeed.

The national survey of 1 002 registered voters, that had a margin of error of 4%, and was conducted during November, found that 52% of respondents have confidence that the GNU will succeed while 32% expect it to fail.

Confidence inside the major parties is even stronger. Among African National Congress (ANC) voters 56% said the GNU will succeed whilst 25% said it will fail.

Among Democratic Alliance (DA) voters 61% expressed confidence it will succeed with 24% saying it will fail.

The extent of popular confidence in the GNU partly reflects some of its initial successes.

Given the risk that a coalition government might be built around the ANC, Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe there was widespread initial popular and investor relief that the more sensible DA and ANC coalition emerged.

The ANC and the DA successfully used the VAT increase negotiations earlier this year to test the limits of each other's power before agreeing to a resolution that reflected the best interests of South Africa’s economy and its people (polls show that South Africans were strongly opposed to tax increases). The public was very reassured by the two parties being able to find each other on what had been a divisive issue.

More encouragement has come from the elimination of loadshedding. Plans to unbundle Eskom into separate generation, transmission, and distribution entities have begun to advance after years of delay, opening the way for competition and new investment.

Port and rail recovery efforts are under way. Last week the deputy finance minister, Ashor Sarupen, spoke on Talking Sense, one of The Common Sense’s flagship podcasts, where he said that port and rail reforms are moving along much faster than had previously been the case.

The currency has also firmed through the life of the GNU, strengthening the buying power of the rand and reducing the cost of imported goods, including fuel. This directly improves the living standards of people.

Even in areas as sensitive to Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) there has been progress with the ANC agreeing at least to talk to the DA about its proposal to greatly improve South Africa’s empowerment policies.

The combined efforts of the ANC and the DA in government saw South Africa exit the Financial Action Task Force grey list, which greatly eases the cost of doing business within the country.

This newspaper was the first to report that the unitary government had in practise agreed to abandon the National Health Insurance (NHI) proposal to nationalise South Africa’s private healthcare industry.

The ANC and the DA jointly delivered a mini-budget widely regarded as the most credible fiscal statement in years and which lead to South Africa’s first credit ratings upgrade in two decades.

South Africa’s confidence in the GNU succeeding reflects these early successes.

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.