EXCLUSIVE: Support for ANC Now Below 50% in Townships and Rural Areas

Support for the African National Congress (ANC) has slipped below 50% in a number of the party’s key constituencies, boding ill for the party ahead of the next local government elections (LGE), which must be held within the next twelve months.

This is according to latest polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF).*

The poll, conducted in November last year, found that overall support for the ANC was at 37%. The gap between it and the Democratic Alliance (DA) was five points, with 32% of respondents saying they supported that party.

This low level of support for the ANC was due to backing for the party being below 50% in several of its historic constituencies.

Among black voters, 45% said they would vote for the ANC, while 15% said they would vote for the DA.

Some 15% of black voters said they supported the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) while 10% said they supported the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Among rural voters, another key constituency for the ANC, fewer than half said they supported the party.

The proportion of rural voters who said they supported the ANC was 47%, with 16% supporting the DA, 12% supporting MK, and 6% backing the EFF.

For people who live in townships, support for the ANC had also slipped below 50%. Only 47% of respondents who lived in townships said they supported the ANC, against 16% who backed the DA. Fourteen percent of township respondents said they backed MK, the same proportion that backed the EFF.

Of those who were on low incomes, support for the ANC has also dropped below 50%. Only 41% of those who earned less than R2 000 a month said they supported the ANC, compared to 22% who said they supported the DA, 16% who said they supported MK, and 10% who supported the EFF.

Marius Roodt, deputy editor at The Common Sense, said that the fact that the ANC now had the support of less than half of respondents in some of its key constituencies showed that the party faced a serious challenge ahead of the next LGE.

“The ANC has always enjoyed very strong support among black South Africans, as well as people living in townships or rural areas, and those on lower incomes. The fact that the party now has the support of less than half of respondents in these constituencies means the party will struggle to maintain levels of vote share it has achieved in previous elections. If these trends hold, ANC support levels in the next LGE are likely to only be in the mid-30s. It could find itself on the opposition benches in many municipalities it has governed for decades,” Roodt said.

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.