Geordin Hill-Lewis, the likely next leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), faces significant challenges ahead, according to new polling conducted in late February and early March by the Social Research Foundation, in conjunction with The Common Sense.

Only 13% of voters view him favourably, with 15% holding an unfavourable view. That is not because he is unpopular; rather, the data arises from the fact that a concerning 59% of voters say they’re too unfamiliar with him to have a view.

Breaking down the data by demographics reveals more concerns:

• •Among black voters, 66% are unfamiliar with Hill-Lewis;
• •That figure stands at 48% for coloured voters;
• •At 70% for Indian voters; and
• •And at 30% for white voters.

Among African National Congress voters, his unfamiliarity reaches 67%, and even DA voters, at 45%, say they are too unfamiliar with him to know what he’s all about.

John Steenhuisen’s unfamiliarity was polled in 2026 at 28%. That for Helen Zille was 6%.

This level of unfamiliarity around Hill-Lewis represents a serious hurdle, especially given his role as the party's future leader. The DA will need a robust strategy to increase his visibility and resonate with voters, particularly black voters, where his recognition is lowest. If Hill-Lewis cannot bridge this gap, his leadership could struggle to gain traction, even within the DA’s traditional support base.

A political insider told The Common Sense that part of the problem is that “Cape Town (where Hill-Lewis has been mayor) is not South Africa … it is about as distant from South Africa as if he had been the mayor of a city in Europe or America.”

Hill-Lewis has a phenomenal track record of running the City of Cape Town, where he has attracted massive investment and development. However, he has not been at the centre of national politics. He has been distant from the action around the Government of National Unity (GNU). And he has had very little to say about the national-level economic and social issues that worry South African voters.

That can all be resolved if he uses the DA’s forthcoming congress (where he is likely to be elected as the party’s next leader) to start emerging as a national figure in the public mind and then dedicate the time to building the international and local policy and economic ties that are necessary to sustain such a standing. Daunting but achievable.

*The Social Research Foundation Q1 2026 Market Survey was commissioned by the Social Research Foundation supported by The Common Sense and conducted by Victory Research using a nationally representative telephonic CATI survey of registered voters (N=2 222), with metro samples upsized to over 500 respondents each in Johannesburg (n=503), Tshwane (n=510), and eThekwini (n=503). Fieldwork was conducted between 16 February 2026 and 6 March 2026 using a single-frame random digit dialling sampling design that draws from all possible South African mobile numbers, ensuring equal probability of selection and near-universal coverage given SIM penetration above 250%, more than 90% adult phone ownership, and mobile network coverage of 99.8% of the population. Respondents were screened to include registered voters only, and turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on likelihood indicators, with the primary model assuming turnout of 56.0%. Data were weighted to ensure the national sample reflects the demographic profile of the registered voter population across language, age, race, gender, location (urban/rural), education, and income, while metro samples were weighted to the demographic composition of voters in each metro. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level with a design effect (DEFF) of 1.762, producing margins of error of 2.1% nationally and 4.4% for each metro sample.