When South Africans voted in the local government elections of March 2006, the political landscape was almost unrecognisable from the one that confronts voters tomorrow. The African National Congress (ANC) governed five of South Africa’s six metro municipalities with outright majorities, faced an opposition too weak to seriously threaten its dominance, and commanded almost two-thirds of the national vote. The one exception was Cape Town, where no party secured a majority and the Democratic Alliance (DA), under Helen Zille, assembled a coalition to take power.

Twenty years later, that picture has been almost completely reversed. The ANC no longer commands an outright majority in any of the original six metro municipalities, coalition government has become the norm, and Cape Town, once the country’s great coalition experiment, may emerge from tomorrow's election as the only major city with a single-party majority, although the ANC could hold on to its majority in Buffalo City.

The scale of the transformation is extraordinary. In 2006, the ANC won 64.9% of the combined national ward and proportional representation (PR) vote, against 16.3% for the DA and 7.5% for the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

The ANC’s subsequent electoral trajectory provides perhaps the clearest measure of the change. Its combined national ward and PR vote share fell to 61.9% in 2011, 53.9% in 2016, and 45.6% in 2021. The latest polling by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and The Common Sense places ANC support at just 32.0% ahead of tomorrow's vote. Although polling cannot be compared directly with election results, and turnout remains a significant uncertainty, the direction is unmistakable. In 2006, approximately two in every three municipal ward and PR votes went to the ANC. Twenty years later, the party’s polled support is closer to one in three.

The chart below shows the ANC’s national vote share in each municipal election since 2006 and the most recent 2026 polling from the SRF and The Common Sense.

The transformation is equally apparent in the number of municipalities governed by outright majorities. In 2006, of the country’s 237 metropolitan and local municipalities, 206 had a majority party and just 31 were hung (where no party wins a majority). By 2011, the number without a majority had risen to 37 out of 234, before falling to 27 out of 213 in 2016. The dramatic break came in 2021, when 70 of the country’s 213 metropolitan and local councils were left without a majority party. In 2006, just 13.1% of councils were hung. By 2021, that proportion had risen to 32.9%. Coalition politics had spread from a handful of municipalities to almost a third of the country.

(The number of municipalities has declined over the past 20 years because the Municipal Demarcation Board merged smaller municipalities into larger administrative units, particularly ahead of the 2016 elections, with the aim of improving financial viability, administrative efficiency, and service delivery.)

Cape Town’s trajectory ran in the opposite direction. In 2006, the DA secured 41.9% against 37.9% for the ANC, forcing Helen Zille to negotiate with smaller parties to become mayor. Five years later, the DA secured an outright majority, which it increased to 66.6% in 2016 before falling to 58.3% in 2021. As coalition government spread elsewhere, Cape Town became an increasingly unusual example of single-party metropolitan government.

The decisive national turning point came in 2016, when the ANC lost its majorities in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay, retaining only eThekwini among the original six metros. In 2021, it lost its majority there too. The five cities it had governed outright in 2006 were now all dependent on coalitions, while Cape Town, the only hung metro in 2006, was the only one of the original six with a majority party.

The latest polling suggests that this fragmentation will continue. The SRF and The Common Sense place the DA at 36.0% in Johannesburg, against 22.0% for the ANC, 11.0% for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), and 9.0% for ActionSA. In Tshwane, the DA polls at 32.0%, the ANC at 26.0%, and ActionSA at 12.0%. In eThekwini, once an ANC stronghold, the MKP leads on 43.0%, followed by the DA on 28.0%, and the ANC on just 13.0%.

The chart below shows the number of hung councils since each election from 2006, with The Common Sense projecting that at least 100 councils are likely to be hung after tomorrow's vote.

The chart below shows the same pattern as above but for the country’s eight metros.

The change is not simply that the ANC has lost support. The entire structure of political competition has altered. In 2006, the contest was overwhelmingly between the ANC and a much smaller DA, with the IFP retaining regional strength. The Economic Freedom Fighters, MKP, Patriotic Alliance, and ActionSA did not exist. Today, these parties compete for millions of votes, fragment established voting blocs, and influence which coalitions can govern.

The implications extend beyond election results. In 2006, voters in most municipalities effectively determined their governments directly by giving one party a majority. Increasingly, voters determine the relative strength of parties that must then negotiate to form governments. In cities such as Johannesburg and Tshwane, those negotiations have produced repeated changes of mayor and governing arrangements, often without corresponding improvements in municipal services.

Tomorrow's election will establish how much further that transformation has progressed. But the 20-year trend is already striking. In 2006, coalition government was the exception and single-party government the rule. By 2021, nearly one in three metropolitan and local councils w hung. South Africa has moved from a political system dominated by the ANC to one in which the ability of parties to negotiate, cooperate, and sustain coalitions is becoming almost as important as their ability to win votes.