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The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP)  is likely to be the biggest party in eThekwini, but will miss out on a majority in next month’s local government election (LGE).

This is according to the latest polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF), conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense.

According to the polling, conducted in late September and early October, the MKP had the support of 43% of those polled.

The Democratic Alliance had the support of 28% of those polled.

The African National Congress had the support of 13%. This is a significant decline from the 42% it won in the city in the 2021 LGE.

The Inkatha Freedom Party had the support of 7%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters had 3%.

The chart below shows party support levels in the 2021 LGE and across the last three sets of polling in the city, with the averages of those three polls.

Methodology

The figures come from a Social Research Foundation market survey conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit dialling design was used, with respondents screened for voter registration and then interviewed, and the sample was further quota-controlled for key demographic characteristics of South Africa’s registered voter population. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, making telephonic interviewing a reliable method of reaching a representative sample of registered voters. The sample was fully weighted according to the demographic parameters of the registered voter population.

The survey was conducted from 18 September to 12 October 2026 among 3 100 respondents.

It must be stressed that the election polling numbers are not forecasts or predictions. They are snapshots in time and South African politics is particularly fluid at the moment.