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United States (US) President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reportedly held a tense call over a possible deal to end the Iran war, as Washington comes under growing pressure to find an exit before the conflict becomes a greater political and economic liability.

The call centred on a draft agreement with Tehran, with Netanyahu warning Trump against trusting Iran to honour any settlement that does not dismantle the country’s nuclear and offensive military capacity.

Israel and Gulf governments are now wary that Washington may accept a tentative deal that delays rather than resolves the deeper problem. The concern is that Iran could use a pause in the war to rebuild its military, restore financing networks, and preserve enough nuclear knowledge and infrastructure to remain a long-term threat.

The Common Sense’s original war scenarios warned that this was one of the most likely endgames. In that framework, the US would use military pressure to damage Iran’s nuclear and offensive capacity, then move towards a negotiated settlement once the main strategic objectives had been achieved.

The risk identified at the time was that the final deal would be incomplete, because Washington would eventually have to balance military success against oil prices, consumer pressure, and the 2026 midterms.

That is now the central tension in the talks. Trump wants to claim a strategic victory without being trapped in an open-ended Middle East war. Iran and China know that Washington wants the issue contained quickly, with The Common Sense’s assessment being that the White House wants the war substantially settled by 4 July.

Iran has also warned that renewed US or Israeli strikes could widen the war, including through retaliation against Gulf states hosting US forces.

If bombing resumes, the likely US objective would be to hit infrastructure that causes economic pain while pushing back Iran’s ability to rebuild and finance its offensive capacity. That would fit Trump’s message that diplomacy remains possible, but only under the threat of a larger assault.

The Common Sense’s call remains that the US will probably have to settle for an incomplete deal. But that does not mean the war has failed. Washington has already substantially achieved the stated nuclear objective of the campaign, weakened Iran’s offensive position, and shifted the oil balance of power away from Tehran.