This is a paid article which your subscription is allowing you to read.

A new poll by a London and Johannesburg-based research, consultancy, and communications group SABI, supported by News24, published in early October, has found shifting political dynamics across major South African metros ahead of the municipal elections, scheduled for next month. The outcomes found align closely with the findings of The Common Sense, which conducted polling in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation.

Pollsters interviewed 5 001 registered voters, mostly located in Johannesburg, Cape Town, eThekwini, and Tshwane, between 25 August and 17 September 2026, primarily face-to-face using computer-assisted personal interviewing. News24 notes that a poll is not a projection or a prediction. It is a snapshot of sentiment at a particular point in time. The margin for error ranges between 3.2% and 3.4% and a turnout of 52% was assumed.

The poll suggests fragmented outcomes in the country’s upcoming municipal elections, with no party dominating. Across the country, it found 32% of voters preferred the African National Congress (ANC), 25% the Democratic Alliance (DA), 15% the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), 12% the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and 4% the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). How the coalitions shape up at the end of it all is critical and will reset the country’s direction.

The chart below shows national voting intentions.

In Johannesburg, the polling suggests that the mayorship is beyond the DA’s reach, even after a high-profile campaign by the party’s Helen Zille. The DA is the preferred option for 29% of interviewees, the ANC comes in at 23%. Even the allocation of non-DA voters who said there is a “fair chance of them voting DA” only raises the party to 40%. This ensures that Johannesburg’s next council will be the product of coalition with kingmaking powers probably in the hands of MKP (12% in the poll), the EFF (11%), and Action SA (7%).

The chart below shows voting intention in Johannesburg.

The chart below shows voting intention with non-DA voters who say there is a "fair chance" of voting for the DA being allocated to the party.

Tshwane is similarly fragmented, with the DA most popular (32%), followed by the ANC (24%), the EFF (14%), Action SA (11%), and the MKP (6%).

The chart below shows voting intention in Tshwane.

Cape Town looks like it will be the one major exception to the need for coalitions. The poll suggests that the DA will remain virtually unchallenged, capturing 56% of the vote, with the ANC a distant second (19%).

The chart below shows voting intention in Cape Town.

In eThekwini, the MKP is the preferred option for 43% of those polled, with the DA second (30%) and the ANC a distant third (11%). Illustrating the extent to which the MKP has surged, the fourth-placed IFP commands only 6% and the EFF 3%.

The chart below shows voting intention in eThekwini.

The SABI/News24 poll did not only ask municipal opinions but also leadership preferences and issue perceptions. Only one national leadership figure, ANC-aligned businessman Patrice Motsepe, had a net positive favourability rating (+21%). He was viewed as “favourable” by 48% and “unfavourable” by 27%. The next-best-performing of the 11 figures tested were DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis and President Cyril Ramaphosa, but both still had net negative ratings.

The chart below shows the favourability ratings.

The top issues for interviewees were: “jobs and unemployment” (33%), “corruption” (16%), and “crime and insecurity” (8%). “Illegal immigration” was ranked only 5th, just ahead of “service delivery” and “cost of living”.

The chart below shows what people identified as the main issues.

Referring to the municipal elections, News24 describes 2026 as “a watershed year”.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that he had looked very closely at the data and that it was "excellent and of the highest quality. News24 must be congratulated for doing this polling, as it greatly aids in understanding the political trends shaping the country. They should also be praised for investing the time and money into the exercise, with good polling in South Africa still being something of a rarity."

For the DA, the quest is now to become the largest party in Gauteng’s metros, the country’s economic heartland. In the same province, the ANC is fighting for survival, as it is in eThekwini. The major disruptor will be the MKP, which may well end up being the keystone in a new governing coalition in eThekwini.