New Shock Poll Sees Greens Surge in UK – A Warning for SA’s Political Establishment 

The Green Party has made significant strides in a new poll in the United Kingdom (UK), leapfrogging both Labour and the Conservatives to secure second place, just behind Reform UK. A YouGov survey commissioned by The Times and Sky News, and conducted on Sunday and Monday, shows the Greens having the support of 21% of those polled (a four-point increase on the last poll conducted a few weeks ago), coming after their historic by-election victory in Manchester last week. 

Last Thursday the Greens won a parliamentary by-election in the Mancunian constituency of Gorton & Denton. The Green candidate, Hannah Spencer, won 40.7% of the vote, up from the 13.2% the Greens won in the 2024 general election. Labour, which had previously held the seat, was relegated to third place, with Matthew Goodwin, of Reform UK, claiming second place. The by-election win has been seen by a number of analysts as a seminal moment in British politics, with a real possibility now existing that Labour and the Conservatives, the two dominant parties of British politics for more than a century, could be overtaken by upstarts such as the Greens and Reform UK in popular support. 

In the poll Labour’s support slipped to a record low of just 16%. The Conservatives, similarly, recorded only 16% support, a figure not seen since the aftermath of Liz Truss’s controversial mini-budget in 2022. 

The polling suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the traditional mainstream parties, with support for Reform UK at 23%, two points ahead of the Greens. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have held steady at 14%. 

The Green Party’s leader, Zack Polanski, claimed that the Green by-election victory was not an isolated phenomenon, and that his party could win more than 100 seats in the next general election. 

According to the poll the Greens are now the most popular option for voters under the age of 50, with nearly half of 18-to-24-year-olds (49%) and 27% of those between 25 and 49 backing the party. 

Despite their gains, the Green Party faces questions about the longevity of its newfound momentum. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s global head of politics and elections, warned that while the Greens’ recent win gave them a “winners’ aura,” it remained to be seen whether this will hold over time or fade as the immediate publicity boost diminishes. 

In contrast, Labour is grappling with a substantial defection of its supporters to the Green Party, with 31% of people who voted Labour in the last general election now indicating they would back Polanski's Greens, compared to just 43% who would remain loyal to Labour. 

The drop in Conservative support also signals a shift in the political landscape. Twenty-eight percent of those who had supported the Tories in 2024 said they would now support Reform UK, although 62% would still back the Conservatives in a general election. 

The polling figures reflect a broader trend of frustration with Britain’s establishment parties, with the Greens and Reform UK commanding 44% of the electorate, while Labour and the Tories combined total just 32%. 

Warwick Grey, senior editor at The Common Sense, said that what was happening in the UK and many of other democracies around the world should not be ignored in South Africa. He said: “We must not think that what is happening in the UK and much of the West can’t happen here. The status quo can change quickly. Only about 15 years ago it would have been unthinkable to consider that the African National Congress (ANC) would be forced into a coalition government. It would also be unthinkable that the ANC could not win a majority in any of the country’s eight metros which may happen in the next local government elections, due in less than a year. 

“Politics in the world’s democracies are becoming increasingly fluid and South Africa is no exception. Old certainties are crumbling fast and people should be prepared for outcomes that would have seemed unlikely only a decade ago,” he concluded.