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Fears are mounting that political assassinations could accelerate ahead of the local government election due in November.

South Africa has recorded hundreds of political assassinations since the turn of the century, with at least 26 people reportedly killed in suspected political hits between January and early August this year alone. Research has previously found that such assassinations spike around local government elections, when control of municipal positions and resources is at stake.

According to a 2024 report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GITOC), 488 political assassinations were recorded in South Africa between 2000 and 2023. There were an estimated 24 assassinations in 2024 and according to GITOC the number of political hits in South Africa in 2025 was 25.

[GITOC defines political assassinations as targeted hits of politicians, public officials, political activists, and whistleblowers where there is evidence of a political motive. These are deliberate hits, rather than deaths arising from broader political unrest or ordinary crime.]

The threat has not disappeared.

Investigative journalist Julian Rademeyer has recorded at least 26 people killed in suspected political hits between January and 11 August this year. The deaths occurred in 23 separate incidents across Gauteng, North West, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, and the Western Cape.

The latest arrests by the South African Police Service (SAPS) underline the continuing problem.

Two suspects have been arrested in connection with the murder of Tshwane African National Congress (ANC) ward councillor Thabang Masemola, who was shot and killed in Mamelodi East at the beginning of July.

Police suspect one of the suspects, identified as 41-year-old Vusimuzi Champ Gebuza, was the alleged hitman, while a woman arrested with him is suspected of having assisted in planning the hit. Police have also linked Gebuza to other murder and attempted murder cases in Mamelodi in Pretoria during 2023 and 2024.

In a separate investigation, Gauteng's Political Killings Task Team arrested three men aged between 40 and 44 in connection with the murder of Economic Freedom Fighters member Aaron Makola. Makola disappeared early last month, and his body was subsequently discovered in Delmas in western Mpumalanga.

Acting National Commissioner Lieutenant General Puleng Dimpane welcomed the arrests, saying: “These breakthroughs demonstrate the SAPS's unwavering commitment to ensuring that those who commit violent crimes are tracked down and brought before the courts. We commend the Gauteng Political Killings Task Team for their tireless efforts and assure the families of the victims, as well as the people of Gauteng, that we remain resolute in our fight against violent crime and politically motivated killings.”

The motives in these cases have not been established publicly.

Assassinations have increasingly become associated with competition over political office, influence, and access to state resources, particularly at local government level.

A GITOC report from 2024 found a particularly strong relationship between political assassinations and municipal elections.

"These spikes are the result of the fierce competition for local government positions and access to municipal finances, which often comes to a head during municipal elections as changes in control are anticipated and sometimes averted through hits," the report said.

That warning is particularly relevant this year.

Several high-profile political assassinations have already been reported ahead of the local government election. They include Democratic Alliance candidate Sinovuyo Dyokwe and uMkhonto we Sizwe activist Mzwakhe Dlamini in Dunoon in Cape Town, Build One South Africa candidate Leon Ngcikwe in Gugulethu, also in Cape Town, and ANC councillor Sicelo Mleve in Gqeberha (formerly Port Elizabeth).

The killings are no longer easily explained by intra-party rivalry alone. Competition between political organisations, battles over municipal positions, and evidence of links between politics and criminal or extortion networks are widening the potential sources of violence.

The uncertainty around this year’s local government elections, where a record number of councils are likely to be hung (where no party wins a majority) could increase this danger.

This year's election could produce significant changes in who controls municipalities and who gains access to the positions and resources attached to them. It could also cut established local political figures off from systems of patronage on which their influence depends, which could see a spike in political killings.