Just a week ago in Mossel Bay, violent unrest erupted, leaving several Mozambicans dead and dozens of homes burned, forcing about a thousand people to flee. “We’ve been asked to go into more detail on protests – whether there is a heightened risk this winter and how to anticipate it,” Cronje says on the show.

South Africa’s jobs story shows why frustration is mounting.

Since 1994, employment has risen from 8 million to 17 million, but most of the growth happened before 2008. Over the last 15 years, only about two million jobs were added. After an initial period of rising living standards post-apartheid, progress has stagnated, particularly for poor households. Cronje connects this stagnation directly to the rise in violent protests, which now account for roughly 30% of all demonstrations, up from a low of 6% in 2004.

Cronje says his firm monitors three indicators that predicted the 2008, 2015, and 2021 incidents of mass violence that swept South Africa: spikes in food and transport inflation hit poor households hardest; organised incitement, both online and on the ground, heightens tensions; and bitterly cold winter nights make life in informal settlements even harsher.

Today, fuel and fertiliser prices are rising due to the Iran war, social tensions are palpable, and temperatures are dropping. Cronje notes, “The confluence of higher prices, deliberate incitement, and bitter cold is the traditional trigger for violent protest outbreaks. All three are in play at the moment.”

Watch the full episode of The Frans Cronje Show on The Common Sense to see the data, charts, and insights that explain why protests are likely to intensify this winter, and how households, businesses, and authorities can understand and anticipate what’s coming.