Rainbow Nation 2.0 Will Depend on Rebuilding Shared Institutions – Economist

An economist, Johan Fourie, has called for a new phase of South African nation-building, warning that the country’s fading “Rainbow Nation” ideal cannot be revived without rebuilding shared public institutions and articulating a credible national vision.

Writing in his newsletter Our Long Walk, Fourie, who is based at Stellenbosch University, reflects on the optimism of the 1990s and mid-2000s, when economic growth exceeded 5% and poverty rates fell. That period, he argues, sustained a sense that South Africans, despite deep differences, shared a common future. Since around 2009, however, growth has stagnated, state capacity has weakened, and that co-operative spirit has frayed.

Fourie analyses the issue through recent economics research on nation-building. Drawing on studies of Indonesia, he notes that national identity can be shaped by policy (particularly schooling and broader mixing between different populations) and institutions, but there are caveats. He writes: “Diversity can be integrated, but the structure of that diversity and the quality of institutions targeted by those policies matter greatly.” Cross-group contact can also foster a broader civic identity, but it can intensify competition where society is split into a few large blocs, he says.

A key concept in Fourie’s analysis is “exit”. When citizens opt out of failing public systems, the shared spaces that sustain national identity erode. In South Africa, he argues, exit has become routine. Private security substitutes for policing, solar panels hedge against electricity failure, boreholes replace unreliable municipal water, and private schooling and healthcare expand. Each decision is rational in isolation. Collectively, they hollow out the common institutional platforms that once underpinned national cohesion.

Fourie also references historical research on contested European border regions, such as Alsace-Lorraine, on the Franco-German border, which suggests that repeated negative experiences with the state can entrench regional identity for decades. He sees parallels in South Africa’s July 2021 unrest and renewed talk of regional autonomy in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, arguing that when national institutions falter, regionalism becomes a language of control and dignity.

He cautions against understanding the problem as a choice between personalities and institutions. Fourie writes: “Institutions matter because they outlast leaders. They turn promises into routines. They make fair treatment ordinary rather than heroic. Leaders matter too, because institutions rarely rebuild themselves in a vacuum. Someone has to define the direction, convince citizens that the project is shared, and hold a coalition together long enough for repairs to become visible.” 

Citing sociologist Xolela Mangcu, who appeared on his podcast, Fourie suggests that South Africa currently lacks leadership capable of articulating a “race-transcendent” national vision. The practical test of renewal, he writes, is whether citizens, especially the middle class, return to public schools, clinics, policing, electricity, and water systems by choice.

Without visible institutional repair and a believable shared future, he argues, the optimism many are feeling about South Africa will remain fragile, and the prospect of a durable “Rainbow Nation 2.0” will remain out of reach.

Read our story today about what Chief Rabbi Warren Goldstein thinks needs to be done to restore shared values.