South Africa has been granted an 18-month extension to consider Israel’s initial response to South Africa’s first set of arguments.

South Africa had said that a second set of written arguments was necessary because of the complexity of the case.

The ICJ has now given South Africa until the end of November 2027 to file its rejoinder to Israel, while Israel has, in turn, been given until May 2029 to file its reply to South Africa.

However, there may be more to this extension than initially meets the eye. South Africa is under immense pressure to step back from its Iranian policy in order to create some room for manoeuvre for South Africa’s new ambassador to Washington, Roelf Meyer.

The extension would fit in with “balance of forces” theory – this is the theory that has been used by the African National Congress (ANC) for much of its history to determine its strategy and tactics. When the balance of forces is ranged against the ANC (as is the current situation in the ICJ case) the party would then opt to retreat or settle into a holding pattern. However, when the balance of forces is perceived to be in the party’s favour then it would opt to advance or strike. At the moment, South Africa could consider that, in its ICJ case, the balance of forces is ranged against it, and it would make sense now for a tactical retreat.

There is also a view within the ANC that this stepping away only needs to hold until November, when the American midterms are due to be held. Current polling shows that the Republicans could do poorly in the midterm elections, with the Democrats gaining control of the American Congress. The Democrats would likely be less adversarial against Pretoria, which means that South Africa could continue with its anti-American foreign policy in the near future.