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In February and March, the Social Research Foundation (SRF), in conjunction with The Common Sense, tested public opinion on South Africa’s foreign policy by asking respondents whether the policy should be based on national interest or on liberation-era loyalties.*

The data were split quite evenly, with 47% of voters saying national interest and 43% saying liberation loyalty.

• •Among black voters, the split was 40% to 48%;
• •Among white voters, it was 86% to 7%;
• •Among African National Congress (ANC) voters, it was 32% to 61%; and
• •Among Democratic Alliance voters, it was 67% to 23%.

The SRF has been polling foreign policy opinion since its inception, and the latest data showed a far starker drift towards the liberation loyalty answer than previous polls.

There was a strong level of education split in the data.

• •Among people with no formal education, the split was 18% to 54%;
• •Among those with matric as their highest level of education, the split was 51% to 45%; and
• •Among post-graduate professionals, it was 81% to 8%.

That same split translated into employment and living standards data.

• •Among people with an income of just R2 000 to R3 000 a month, the split was 29% to 56%; while
• •Among those with a monthly income upwards of R20 000, it was 77% to 16%.

There are three things that stand out from the data.

The first is that, at some level, a message is getting through to lower socio-economic strata that a liberation-first foreign policy works.

The second is that, as soon as an individual accesses good education and a decent job, that view shifts.

The third is that this poses a problem for the ANC in government, in the sense that the data may, in the near term, tempt an increasingly populist foreign policy that delivers increasingly counterproductive long-term economic consequences that further erode political support for that party.

*The Social Research Foundation Q1 2026 Market Survey was commissioned by the Social Research Foundation supported by The Common Sense and conducted by Victory Research using a nationally representative telephonic CATI survey of registered voters (N=2 222), with metro samples upsized to over 500 respondents each in Johannesburg (n=503), Tshwane (n=510), and eThekwini (n=503). Fieldwork was conducted between 16 February 2026 and 6 March 2026 using a single-frame random digit dialling sampling design that draws from all possible South African mobile numbers, ensuring equal probability of selection and near-universal coverage given SIM penetration above 250%, more than 90% adult phone ownership, and mobile network coverage of 99.8% of the population. Respondents were screened to include registered voters only, and turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on likelihood indicators, with the primary model assuming turnout of 56.0%. Data were weighted to ensure the national sample reflects the demographic profile of the registered voter population across language, age, race, gender, location (urban/rural), education, and income, while metro samples were weighted to the demographic composition of voters in each metro. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level with a design effect (DEFF) of 1.762, producing margins of error of 2.1% nationally and 4.4% for each metro sample.