An undetermined number of Mozambicans have reportedly been killed and hundreds have fled their homes amidst shack-burnings and xenophobic violence in Mossel Bay in the Western Cape.

The Mozambican government said that five of its citizens had been killed in the incident which comes just days after this newspaper had warned of a flare up in violence.

The latest violence broke out over recent days when a group of people set shacks alight in an informal settlement in the town, with reports indicating that over 50 shacks had been burnt down.

According to reports some of the shacks had been set alight with people still inside them.

About 800 Mozambicans have also reportedly fled the area.

The incident comes amidst a series of anti-migrant marches across South Africa in recent weeks, which has seen a number of African countries, including Ghana and Nigeria, either repatriate their citizens or say they would do so.

The Common Sense has warned that violence could break out amidst a familiar pattern of warning signs - that have on three past occasions aligned to trigger widespread violent unrest in the country.

The first warning sign is food and transport price inflation. While the official inflation rate appears relatively subdued it is a lagging indicator, and the recent increases in the fuel price, along with the ongoing foot and mouth disease epidemic will have pushed the food price up.

The second is cold weather, which puts additional strain on poorer communities, especially people living in informal settlements. South Africa is now heading into its coldest period of the year.

Third is incitement to violence, and anti-immigrant rhetoric has been becoming more prevalent over the past few weeks.

Incidents of violent unrest in 2008, 2015, and 2021 were all triggered by the confluence of those three factors, and the events in Mossel Bay therefore represent an ominous portent of what may lie ahead through the balance of the South African winter.