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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the only real movement in the race to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa is away from the field. Since March, more African National Congress (ANC) voters name nobody at all, and it is the one shift the polling can confirm. Patrice Motsepe still leads comfortably, with Fikile Mbalula second. Both waves closed before the events now reshaping the contest. As The Common Sense reported this month, Paul Mashatile's ill health has kept him out of public life, and Mbalula's candidacy has been undermined by the candidate registration crisis he presided over. Whether their support would move to Motsepe or to nobody is a question only the next survey can answer. The chart below shows who ANC voters name as their first choice to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa, in March and in July. The full numbers are set out here.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.