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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the share of African National Congress (ANC) voters who object to their party forming a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) has halved since November, from 26% to 13%. Among DA voters it has not moved, standing at 34%, 30% and 32% across the three rounds. DA voters are now more than twice as likely as ANC voters to object. Across all likely voters the figures are 36%, 29% and 28%. Fewer than a third object in any round, and in every group more voters agree than disagree. The chart below shows the share of likely voters, in total and by the party they support, who disagree that the two parties should form a coalition where neither wins a majority.

* The figures come from three Social Research Foundation Market Surveys conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single frame random digit dialling design was used in each round, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. Each sample was fully weighted to match the registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. Figures in this piece are for likely voters under that model. Each round carries a national margin of error of 4.0% at a 95.0% confidence level.

The rounds were: 27 October to 15 November 2025, 1 002 respondents, 551 likely voters, design effect 1.7620; 20 February to 6 March 2026, 2 222 respondents, 1 199 likely voters, design effect 3.2675; and 8 to 31 July 2026, 2 214 respondents, 1 583 likely voters, design effect 3.7938.