New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows that voters have not soured on the coalition. They have soured on the African National Congress (ANC). Across five rounds of polling since February last year, the share of likely voters with a favourable view of the ANC has fallen from 41% to 30%. The Democratic Alliance (DA) ends the period close to where it started. The ANC's loss of favourability is not being translated into a matching gain for its partner. Over the same stretch, the share who say the Government of National Unity is performing well has stayed in a narrow band around the halfway mark, never falling below 48%. The government is not being judged by the standing of its largest member. The chart below shows the share of likely voters with a favourable view of each party at each round of polling, and separately the share who say the Government of National Unity is performing well.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.