Is America on the Brink of Another Economic Boom?
The American economy grew by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, beating expectations despite trade tensions, expensive energy, and geopolitical instability. With private investment accelerating and quarterly inflation moderating, the United States could be approaching another major economic boom if political developments, geopolitical settlements, and falling energy prices create more favourable conditions for growth in 2027.
30.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
Fitch Holds to its June Debt Forecasts as Low Growth Remains a Problem in SA
Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed its June forecasts for South Africa's government debt following October's Medium-Term Budget, maintaining that weak economic growth will prevent debt from following the sustained downward path projected by the National Treasury.
28.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
South Africans Face Higher Borrowing Costs as Global Rates Head up
South African households and businesses face the prospect of higher borrowing costs heading into 2027 as the world’s major central banks prepare to increase interest rates in December, putting pressure on the SARB to act ahead of them in November.
27.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
South Africa’s Political Risk is Greater Than the Bond Market Thinks
The yield differential between South African and US government bonds has narrowed to levels last seen during the economic boom of the mid-2000s. Yet South Africa today faces far weaker economic growth, considerably higher government debt, and a political settlement whose stability may be seriously tested in the months ahead, all of which goes to the question of whether investors have got the country’s pricing wrong.
26.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
The Global Debt Monster and Its Implications
Global debt levels have doubled since the end of the Second World War, setting up the most important investment call of a generation.
23.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
South Africa’s Easy Electricity Solution
South Africa is much closer to generating enough electricity to sustain economic growth of 5% than routinely pessimistic assessments suggest. Analysis by The Common Sense shows how restoring existing generating capacity could transform the country’s economic prospects.
23.10.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
Will SA’s Local Government Elections Be a Risk Event for the Bond Market?
The most important economic question around the forthcoming LGEs is the extent to which these represent a risk event that will move the bond market.
28.9.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
The 0.9% Growth Number Shows That South Africans Are Getting Poorer
South Africa’s 0.9% economic growth number is lower than its rate of population growth, meaning that on a per capita basis, the country is getting poorer.
9.9.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
What's Driving the US Yield Spike – And the Bessent-Warsh Standoff Behind That
A note from advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients explains the six forces behind the spike in US bond yields but argues that the even more important story is the battle between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and its context in the larger US-versus-China struggle over the future of the dollar.
2.9.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
Estimating What South Africa Would Gain from Exploiting Its Oil and Gas Reserves
Last week the Constitutional Court largely shut the door on oil and gas exploration and development in South Africa. The losses will be staggering.
19.8.2026 |
Bheki Mahlobo
