The ANC’s Vision for South Africa: Navigating the Path Forward After Losing Electoral Majority

Today, the African National Congress (ANC) heads into its fifth National General Council (NGC) meeting, where it will confront the challenge of revitalising its transformation agenda after losing its electoral majority in 2024.

The NGC is the ANC’s most important decision-making meeting between national conferences.

In the aftermath of the 2024 elections, the ANC, South Africa’s ruling party since the end of apartheid, finds itself at a crossroads. The ANC’s historical dominance was significantly weakened when it lost its electoral majority, securing only 40% of the vote, down from 57% in the previous election. This shift marks a pivotal moment for the ANC and its ability to continue its transformative agenda for South Africa. At the heart of the ANC’s struggle is the National Democratic Revolution (NDR), which has been the ideological foundation of the ANC’s policies for decades.

The NDR: A Foundation Built on Lenin's Theory of Imuilt on Lenin's Theory of Imperialism

The NDR, adopted in the 1960s by the ANC, is rooted in Lenin’s theory of imperialism, which asserts that the wealth of colonial powers is derived from the exploitation of the colonised. Lenin argued that any anticolonial revolution must aim to dispossess the coloniser and embrace socialism, failing which the colonised will never be truly free. The NDR applied this theory to South Africa, where the ANC saw apartheid as a colonial system of exploitation that left the majority of South Africans, particularly the black majority, dispossessed of land and resources.

From its inception, the NDR outlined a path toward a socialist society that would dismantle the old order and redistribute wealth to the oppressed. Over the years, the ANC has aligned many of its key policies with this revolutionary framework, including the nationalisation of mineral resources, black economic empowerment (BEE), and more recently, proposals for expropriation without compensation (EWC) and the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme. These policies have become central to the ANC’s agenda as they seek to address the historical injustices of apartheid and redistribute wealth to the previously marginalised black population.

However, the ANC is now confronted with a significant contradiction between the ideals of the NDR and the practical needs of a thriving industrial economy. The revolutionary ideals of state control, resource nationalisation, and wealth redistribution, though rooted in a desire to achieve social justice, have placed South Africa in a paradoxical position: while aiming to uplift the country’s poor and dispossessed, these policies may inadvertently hinder the economic growth and industrialisation necessary for long-term prosperity.

The ANC’s Dilemma: Choosing Between Old Ideologies and Political Survival

The NDR’s focus on state control and redistribution of resources has created a dilemma for the ANC. The party’s adherence to the NDR’s socialist principles is increasingly at odds with the demands of a globalised economy that prioritises market-driven growth, private-sector innovation, and industrial competitiveness. The contradiction between the ANC’s historical commitment to the NDR and the economic survival of the country has become even more apparent as South Africa grapples with low growth, high unemployment, and widening inequality.

For decades, the ANC has attempted to balance socialism with the realities of managing a modern economy. The GEAR (growth, employment, and redistribution) policy of the late 1990s reflected this attempt, as it sought to create a market-friendly environment that would attract investment while still addressing the needs of the disadvantaged majority. However, these economic policies, designed to encourage private-sector growth, clashed with the NDR's demand for state-led redistribution and control over key resources.

The ANC’s adherence to policies such as EWC and BEE has been central to its ideological mission but has raised significant concerns about the country’s ability to attract foreign investment, create jobs, and grow its industrial base. BEE, for instance, was intended to correct historical racial inequalities by ensuring that black South Africans could benefit from economic opportunities and business ownership. However, critics argue that BEE has often benefited a small elite rather than the broader black population and has sometimes stifled competition and innovation in the private sector.

Similarly, the EWC policy, which aims to redistribute land and mineral resources without compensation, has sparked fears that it will undermine investor confidence, leading to capital flight and further economic stagnation. The NHI scheme, while intended to provide universal healthcare, is seen by many as a state-driven project that would increase the fiscal burden on an already strained economy.

The ANC now faces a fundamental question: Should it remain committed to the ideals of the NDR, or should it shift its focus to fostering an industrial economy that can compete in the global marketplace? The answer to this question will determine whether the ANC survives politically and South Africa’s future economic trajectory.

The ANC’s Struggle for Economic Growth and Job Creation

The ANC’s primary challenge in the next 18 months is to find a path that reconciles the NDR’s goals with the urgent need for economic growth, job creation, and industrialisation. As illustrated in a party discussion document released before the NGC, South Africa’s economic situation is dire, with poverty levels and inequality on the rise. While the ANC has made some progress in providing social grants, expanding basic services, and improving infrastructure, the country remains entrenched in a dual economy characterised by the coexistence of a first economy (dominated by established businesses and foreign capital) and a second economy (comprising the poor and marginalised).

The ANC’s commitment to industrial policy, which includes supporting key sectors like manufacturing, agro-processing, and the green economy, is essential to revitalising the economy. The party must find ways to stimulate private-sector growth and domestic investment while still addressing the pressing needs of the historically oppressed. Policies such as local procurement mandates and industrial financing can help promote domestic production and reduce reliance on raw mineral exports, but they must be carefully balanced with the need to attract international capital and foreign direct investment.

Furthermore, the ANC must focus on restructuring state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which have been plagued by mismanagement, corruption, and inefficiency. The success of these SOEs is crucial to South Africa’s industrial future, as they play a central role in sectors including energy, transportation, and telecommunications. The reform of SOEs must be prioritised to ensure that they can serve as catalysts for economic development rather than as burdens on the state’s fiscal resources.

The Path Ahead: Balancing Ideology and Economic Survival

The ANC’s future depends on its ability to redefine its economic strategy in a way that does not abandon the core principles of the NDR but also recognises the need for a dynamic and thriving industrial economy. The country cannot afford to maintain the status quo of economic stagnation, where state control and redistribution limit opportunities for growth and development. The ANC must embrace economic reform that aligns with the demands of a globalised economy while still addressing the historical injustices that the NDR set out to resolve.

This will require the ANC to make difficult choices about its ideological direction. It must reclaim its position as a leading force for change by strengthening its leadership and ensuring that its policies align with the country’s developmental needs. The renewal of the ANC, both in terms of its internal organisation and its commitment to its transformative agenda, is crucial to the country’s political and economic survival.

Conclusion

The next 18 months will be a critical period for the ANC, as it navigates the tensions between old ideologies and the practical needs of a thriving industrial economy. The ANC must reaffirm its commitment to the ideals of the NDR while simultaneously embracing market-driven policies that can drive inclusive growth, industrialisation, and job creation. This balancing act will require the ANC to adapt its economic policies in a way that ensures socio-economic transformation without undermining the country’s ability to compete on the global stage. The ANC’s future success depends on its ability to renew itself and effectively navigate the challenges of both ideology and economic survival. 

Pierneef was one of South Africa's greatest artists, known for his paintings of South African vistas. This column named after him aims to do something similar - sketch the broad vistas of South Africa's domestic landscape.