The United States (US) House of Representatives has approved the extension for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the programme that provides African countries duty‑free access to US markets. The decision on AGOA renewal comes at a time when South Africa’s place in the programme has been questioned by US officials.

The bill was brought to the House floor under suspension of the rules, a fast-track procedure that limits debate, bars amendments, and requires a two-thirds majority. It was passed by a vote of 340 to 54. It will now be sent to the Senate for consideration.

South Africa is the largest beneficiary of AGOA. In 2024, US imports under the programme totalled $8.0 billion, with $3.76 billion, or 47%, coming from South Africa. But the country’s recent foreign policy choices and political rhetoric have brought its eligibility under closer scrutiny.

Relations between Pretoria and Washington have deteriorated sharply under President Donald Trump, who views South Africa's deepening ties with Iran, its alignment with Russia and China, and its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice as threats to American interests.

Recent political statements from the senior partner in South Africa’s governing coalition, the African National Congress (ANC), have added to the tension. The party has publicly accused Washington of “aggression”, “imperialism”, and “economic coercion”, including in defence of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who has been arrested by the US. The Common Sense has reported that the US administration is unlikely to pursue deeper trade or investment co-operation with a government that frames the US in these terms.

South Africa is hosting naval exercises alongside China, Russia, and Iran, and which will run until 16 January.

In December, South African immigration authorities raided a US‑run Afrikaner asylum-seeker processing facility in Johannesburg, detaining several staff, prompting the State Department to condemn the actions as “harassment” and warning that failure to hold those responsible accountable could lead to “severe consequences”.

South Africa’s actions were raised in the US Congress in December when Senator John Kennedy asked US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer whether South Africa should continue to benefit from AGOA. Greer responded that the administration is open to a one‑year extension while reassessing the programme, and indicated that South Africa could face different treatment, describing it as “a unique problem”.

The White House has signalled clear expectations for South Africa: greater policy alignment, more reciprocal trade arrangements, and the removal of both tariff and non‑tariff barriers.

Two competing AGOA renewal bills are now before Congress. The House has passed a bill providing for a three-year extension. A separate Senate bill proposes a two-year extension, alongside a formal review of US–South Africa relations and the possibility of sanctions on officials. A Senate vote has not yet been scheduled. The two approaches will need to be reconciled before final legislation can be sent to the President.

While AGOA itself is likely to be renewed in the Senate as well, South Africa’s continued participation is far from guaranteed. Ultimately, access will be determined by President Donald Trump, acting through the US Trade Representative, who has the authority to assess each country’s eligibility based on trade, policy, and diplomatic considerations.

Given South Africa’s recent actions and positions, the White House could take steps to ensure the country receives different treatment and to hold Pretoria accountable.