The latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth projections, but South Africa continues to lag far behind its global peers.

The IMF expected the global economy to expand by 3.3% in 2026, a slight increase on the 3.1% it had forecast last year for global economic growth this year.

It expects South Africa to grow by 1.4% this year, also a slight improvement on the 1.2% that it had previously forecast for economic growth for the country. It expects South Africa to grow more in 2027, with growth in that year forecast at 1.5%.

However, South Africa’s growth is far below what is expected in other emerging markets.

The IMF expects emerging markets, as a whole, to grow by 4.2% in 2026. Some of the world’s biggest developing countries, such as India, China, and Nigeria, are all expected to enjoy robust levels of economic growth this year. India is expected to grow by 6.4%, China by 4.5%, and Nigeria by 4.4%

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reach 4.6%.

However, as The Common Sense reported previously, if one had to strip South Africa out of the projections for sub-Saharan Africa, growth in the region would be closer to 5.5% or 6%, making it the fastest-growing region in the world, and one the world’s quiet economic success stories. South Africa is a clear constraint on the region.

The implication for South Africa is not hard to determine. Global conditions are clearly not the primary brake on the country’s economic performance. With global inflation easing and financial conditions improving, the cost of domestic policy failure rises sharply. Without credible reform to unlock investment and productivity, South Africa risks another cycle of global economic growth passing it by while living standards continue to stagnate and South Africans get poorer.