According to a note from advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients, South Africa’s headline consumer inflation for February is expected to come in at 3.2%, down from 3.5% recorded in January. That would place the inflation rate close to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 3.0%.

Statistics South Africa will release inflation data for February tomorrow.

The expected moderation in inflation follows a disinflationary trend that began late in 2025. Analysts attribute the easing primarily to lower fuel prices towards the end of last year and into January, as well as a stronger rand that helped contain imported inflationary pressures.

However, the outlook for inflation over the next few months may become more complicated.

The recent rise in international oil prices, driven in the main by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could reverse some of the earlier gains. Higher energy costs typically feed into transport and production costs across the economy, placing upward pressure on consumer prices.

For that reason, the note warns that inflation may begin to rise again in the coming months, particularly in March and April if oil prices remain elevated.

Despite the expected easing in February’s inflation print, the advisory firm believes the Reserve Bank is likely to remain cautious when its Monetary Policy Committee meets next week Thursday.

Policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now, signalling a wait-and-see approach as global geopolitical developments continue to shape energy prices and inflation expectations.

However, the firm expects that should tensions in the Middle East ease over the next month, and oil prices come off accordingly, the South African central bank will sign off on 50 basis points of rate cuts through the balance of 2026.